Mexico begins season with a gradual supply and stable sizes

The start of week 28 officially marks the beginning of the new avocado season in Mexico for the 2026-2027 campaign. In the Mexican industry, the annual measurement is usually structured from July to June, a cycle in which there is usually a transition period of a couple of months where the different flowerings of the orchards are mixed, with the ripe or "black" fruit coexisting with the first harvests of the new agricultural cycle.

Campaign transition and dry matter accumulation

During the first few weeks of this seasonal changeover, the market experiences a temporary decrease in available volume before operations reach their normal pace. However, the recovery of shipments to international markets does not occur abruptly.

According to Antonio Villaseñor , the increase in exportable supply from Mexico will be a gradual process. This gradual approach is directly related to monitoring the fruit's dry matter content and physiological maturity in the field. Producers and incentive providers prefer to regulate harvesting rates to ensure the product meets the appropriate standards before intensifying large-scale shipments.

Caliber structure: the behavior of the crazy flower

One of the aspects analyzed most closely at the beginning of each season is the size composition. Traditionally, the first flowering, commercially known as " flor loca" (crazy flower ), predominantly produces medium to small sizes, mainly size 60 and above, with a very small proportion of large sizes.

However, the 2026-2027 season presents a different and more balanced initial scenario than anticipated. According to Villaseñor's observations, current shipments to the US market show a distribution of approximately 30% size 48 and 30% size 60. This ratio reflects a much more homogeneous presence of medium-sized fruit from the first weeks of harvest.

The trend towards larger fruit sizes will continue as the harvest months progress. The development of both larger and standard sizes will allow for an increased supply of larger fruit, a phenomenon that typically becomes more apparent in shipments scheduled between October and November.

Impact on the US market and price projections

Regarding the commercial impact of Mexican fruit in the United States , the recovery in export volume should not generate drastic distortions in the price curve. According to Villaseñor's analysis, the main adjustment in the US market's price structure already occurred in the weeks leading up to this official start.

Currently, prices in the North American market are trading at low levels. Therefore, any further downward movement is projected to be marginal, given that prices are already adjusted and the season's performance will depend primarily on the pace of demand and the gradual consolidation of supply.