Peru reduces shipments to Asia and prioritizes exports to Europe

The international avocado market continues to show a stable supply in terms of volume, but price signals in week 32 are beginning to reveal markedly different dynamics between its two main destinations: Europe and the United States. While both maintain a steady flow of shipments, pricing based on size demonstrates how each market responds to its own supply and demand structure.

In the European market, a constant and gradual increase week by week is observed in the value of caliber 18 (commercial reference for the area).

This trend contrasts with the United States, where the 48 caliber (its commercial equivalent), after having registered increases in previous weeks such as week 30, shows a slight decrease in week 32. Despite this adjustment, the prices of the larger sizes in both continents remain even and without the wide gaps of other periods.

Where a notable difference does persist is in the distribution of smaller gauges. Europe presents an unusual situation of high homogeneity: prices between gauges 12 and 26 remain practically at the same level.

In the United States, on the other hand, the price structure is strongly segmented: small fruits (such as size 60 and smaller) are priced at a considerable discount, while size 48 is significantly more expensive.

Dynamics of volumes and origins

From a volume perspective, supply to the United States remains strong at between 1,500 and 1,650 weekly shipments. Mexico continues to lead comfortably with a 60% to 65% share, while Peru and California complement the supply, and Colombia maintains a marginal presence.

For the coming weeks, a scenario is anticipated where Mexico will gradually reinforce its shipments as California maintains its end-of-season downward curve and Peru begins to withdraw.

Europe, meanwhile, remains below the 1,000 weekly shipment mark, averaging between 900 and 950 shipments. Peru dominates, accounting for over 80% of the volume, followed by African origins (Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa), which together represent 15%, leaving Colombia and Brazil with shares of less than 2% each.

However, the Peruvian campaign is formally entering its transition phase. Although the country's total shipments have fallen from their peak of 1,400 per week to between 1,100 and 1,200 shipments, the decline has not been strongly felt in Europe.

Peruvian exporters have chosen to maintain their almost constant presence in the European continent, taking advantage of the better returns, sacrificing volumes destined for other markets in the process.

Adjustments in Asia, Latin America and secondary origins

This strategy of prioritizing Europe over other destinations is already having a clear impact in Asia and North America. A consistent drop in Peruvian shipments is anticipated in the Chinese and Canadian markets, as distributors prefer to avoid long-distance transport at this final stage of the harvest. Instead, regions like Michoacán and Jalisco are gaining ground by shipping fruit to Canada, Japan, and South Korea.

In South America, Chilean imports of Peruvian avocados have fallen by half, and even to a third, compared to the peak volumes recorded two months ago. The slowdown in consumption caused by storms is compounded by the gradual increase in Peruvian fruit prices due to its reduced availability.

Meanwhile, Chile is gradually beginning its national harvest, opening a period of technical caution in the local market due to the potential risk of selling fruit that has fallen during the rains and does not reach the appropriate dry matter content.

Argentina, for its part, continues to source its fruit primarily from Peru and Brazil. In the case of Brazil, with an average of 25 to 30 shipments per week, between 75% and 80% of its supply is being channeled to Argentina and Uruguay (gradually withdrawing from Europe) in a year that is on track to close with a record high in exports.

It is projected that by September Chile will assume leadership of the Argentine market as the fruit reaches ideal maturity.

Regarding the other supplier countries:

• Mexico (Michoacán): Maintains a constantly growing harvest, directing between 85% and 90% of its exports to the United States, with Canada as the second destination and reserving the remainder for Central America, Asia and Europe.
• Mexico (Jalisco): Increases its weekly shipments destined for the USA by 65%, also strengthening its shipments to Japan, Canada and smaller shares in Europe.
• California: Maintains its downward phase of the curve, projecting the definitive closure of its season within the next two to three months.
• Colombia: It is going through the lowest point of its export supply with less than 15 weekly shipments, waiting to resume the main harvest between the end of August and September.
  
  

Perspectives

Overall, week 32 confirms the stability of global volumes but deepens the trade disparities between destinations. While Europe maintains consistent prices across sizes and higher prices for large fruit thanks to strong origin preferences, the United States continues to penalize smaller sizes. The pace of Peru's decline and the speed at which Mexico takes over supplying the US will determine the rhythm of the transition to the final stretch of the season.