Europe and the US differentiate the value of the calibers

While both maintain relatively constant volumes, the valuation of the sizes shows that each market is responding differently to its supply and demand structure.

In the United States, the .48 caliber, the most commercially available, has continued to gain value in recent weeks, widening the gap with smaller calibers. This contrasts with Europe, where the .18 caliber (its commercial equivalent) has remained virtually unchanged.

Moreover, the European market currently presents an unusual situation: the different sizes show very similar prices to each other, reflecting a fairly homogeneous balance between available supply and demand.

This difference is also observed in the smaller sizes. In the United States, the prices for sizes 60, 70, and 84 remain below the prices recorded in Europe for their equivalents, consolidating a much more segmented price structure than that observed on the other side of the Atlantic.

Dynamics of volumes and origins

From a volume perspective, the US market maintains a stable flow of between 1,500 and 1,600 shipments per week. Mexico continues to be by far the main supplier, accounting for between 60% and 65% of the supply, while Peru and California complement the supply, and Colombia maintains a marginal share.

No significant changes are anticipated in the coming weeks, although Mexico is expected to gradually increase its presence as California continues to reduce its shipments.

Europe, meanwhile, continues to handle around 900-950 shipments per week. Peru maintains a clear leadership position, representing between 80% and 85% of the total volume, while African origins, mainly Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa, account for approximately 14% of the market. Colombia and Brazil continue to have much smaller market shares.

Peru is currently entering a transitional phase in its campaign. Although Europe maintains strong demand and continues to absorb much of the available fruit, the country's total weekly shipments have already begun to decline from the peak levels recorded a month ago.

While exports previously exceeded 1,400 shipments per week, they are currently between 1,100 and 1,200, a trend that should continue in the coming weeks as the campaign moves towards its final stage.

Impact on secondary markets and Asia

The preference for the European market is also beginning to be reflected in other destinations. Chile, for example, has reduced its imports of Peruvian avocados in recent weeks. In addition to the lower purchases resulting from consumption affected by weather conditions, there is a commercial factor: the better returns expected in Europe have encouraged Peruvian exporters to prioritize that market.

Meanwhile, the Chilean market is beginning to receive the first shipments of domestic fruit, although concerns persist about the possible sale of fruit that fell during storms and may not yet have reached adequate dry matter content.

In Asia, the situation remains virtually unchanged. Peru continues to supply almost all shipments to China and South Korea, while in Japan it maintains a market share exceeding 80%, supplemented mainly by fruit from Michoacán and Jalisco, Mexico.

Among the other origins, California continues to gradually reduce its shipments as its season draws to a close, while Jalisco progressively increases its presence in the United States and strengthens its shipments to Canada and Japan.

Colombia, meanwhile, continues to experience its lowest export period, with volumes significantly lower than last year and a recovery that may only begin in the second half of August. Brazil maintains a steady pace of exports, primarily to Argentina and Uruguay, consolidating a campaign that is on track to close with a record volume compared to the previous season.

Perspectives

Overall, the global market continues to show stability in trade flows, but price signals are beginning to reveal significant differences among the main destinations. While Europe maintains a balanced market with consistent pricing across sizes, the United States is starting to offer higher premiums for certain fruit sizes. The evolution of these trends, along with the gradual decrease in Peruvian supply over the coming weeks, will be one of the main factors to watch in the final stretch of the season.