Mexico fills 100% of the spaces in Peru and California

Mexico exported 1,503 shipments during week 39. The pace of Mexican shipments is nearly 11% higher than the previous season. The increase in week 39 was significant, rising 23% compared to week 38. Mexico is responding with a solid volume of shipments, and reported inventory levels, which had fallen below 24,000 tons, have recovered to over 27,000 tons. This difference in volume is entirely due to Mexican fruit, which has efficiently filled the gaps left in the market by both California and Peru.

Mexican fruit prices are around 7% lower than in September 2025. Fruit availability has been abundant, which can be explained by an increase in the production of "out-of-season" fruit (fruit that bloomed outside the typical growing season) in most of the producing region. However, there is still disorganization in the fruit supply from exporters and importers, mainly those located along the border, from where discounted prices are frequently quoted, indicating that some link in the supply chain is undoubtedly losing money.

This abundant supply has generated constant pressure from importers to achieve low prices, and this is where the industry should question whether further price reductions will actually sell more fruit. This question is a constant feature of my market analysis, and most of the time I still believe we won't sell additional volumes at lower prices.

In the coming weeks, the harvest of the first fruit of the regular, or early, season will increase. In many areas, it already has an adequate level of dry matter, but given the good availability of "loca" fruit, exporters have preferred to maintain market supply with this type of fruit. Additionally, we have had constant rains which, if managed properly, could cause bruising of the fruit.

Exports to other destinations have also increased; Canada, Japan and Central America have been the main destinations, with a significant percentage increase in exports to Europe, although in volume they are still very small compared to the main destinations.

Sergio Paz Vega
General Manager Coliman Avocados
sergio.paz@coliman.com
Mexico