Transition of the global avocado market and the role of Peru

While Peru continues to be the leading supplier to Europe, China, Japan, and much of South America, California is entering the natural decline of its season, and Colombia remains in its period of lowest availability. All of this creates a scenario of relative stability, where significant changes are expected to begin in August.

The United States is slowly beginning to shift its leading role

The US market maintains a steady and strong pace, registering between 1,500 and 1,700 shipments per week. In this scenario, the supply is being reconfigured, with Mexico as the main supplier, holding a market share of nearly 60%. Meanwhile, California continues to contribute around 20% of the available volume, although this figure will begin to decrease gradually as its season draws to a close.

Peru continues to gain ground, now accounting for over 20% of North American supply and potentially approaching 25% in the coming weeks, solidifying its position as a key partner and complement to Mexican production. Colombia's presence remains very limited (between 1% and 2% of shipments), reflecting the slower harvest season.

Europe maintains stability ahead of the entry of new origins

Europe continues to receive a steady flow of between 900 and 1,100 weekly shipments, maintaining a virtually unchanged supply structure over the past few weeks.

Among suppliers, Peru accounts for approximately 85% of the total volume entering the European continent, while South Africa ranks second with less than 10% of the supply. Further behind are Kenya and Tanzania with around 5%, followed by smaller shares from Colombia and Brazil.

No drastic changes to this composition are expected for the remainder of July. The European market will continue to operate with a stable supply until new volumes arrive from Colombia and, subsequently, the new Chilean campaign formally begins.

Asia continues to rely heavily on Peruvian origin

The Asian market remains stable, but Peruvian avocados clearly dominate. China's performance is steady, primarily influenced by shipping line schedules. Arrivals fluctuate between 70 and 80 containers per week, almost entirely from Peru.

In the case of Japan, between 80% and 90% of imported fruit originates from Peru. Jalisco accounts for less than 12%, while Michoacán maintains a small presence. However, the start of the "crazy flower" harvest in Mexico could open a window to increase shipments in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, South Korea continues to receive a steady flow of between 30 and 35 containers per week, all of 100% Peruvian origin.

Canada maintains Mexican dominance

The Canadian market continues to be supplied primarily by avocados from Mexico. Together, Michoacán and Jalisco account for approximately 80% of shipments to this North American destination.

Peru accounts for less than 10%, and Colombia maintains a very limited presence. This commercial structure confirms the strong dependence of Canadian importers on Mexican products and the growing importance of Jalisco as a logistical complement during the summer season.

South America begins preparing for the change of season

South American markets are also beginning to outline their winter transition. Chile is still receiving Peruvian fruit, although deliveries have decreased between 20% and 30% compared to previous weeks.

This decline coincides with the approaching start of the new Chilean harvest and an attractive European scenario that encourages Peruvian exporters to redirect their containers towards destinations with better commercial prospects.

Argentina maintains a similar import structure, led by Peruvian volume, with Brazil acting as the second most important source. This dynamic will continue until new Chilean production begins to gradually replace this flow.

The next few months will mark the real campaign shift.

The coming weeks will be crucial in confirming the rate of change among the main exporting countries in the avocado industry.

While Peru will begin reducing its shipments in a season projected to be shorter than the previous one, California will continue to slow its pace until the end of its season in September. At the same time, Colombia will remain with low volumes until the start of its main season (expected in September), while Brazil will continue winding down its record-breaking season by concentrating its operations in the Southern Cone.

The international market is already gearing up for the transition to the next stage of the global fruit and vegetable calendar, where August's trading behavior will dictate the rules of balance between supply and demand.