US Market
Lowest prices of the year mark the first half of the year in the US.
The massive Mexican supply and the entry of new competitors put downward pressure on the prices of .48 caliber during the first 6 months of the year.
The behavior of the US market during the first half of 2026 sent a clear signal to the global Hass avocado industry : the volume available at terminals continues to be the main determining factor in price formation.
Between January and June, the combination of an abundant Mexican harvest and the progressive incorporation of other competing origins maintained constant pressure on North American distribution channels.
Evolution of Hass avocado prices in the USA.
Analyzing historical behavior, between weeks 1 and 24 of this year, the average price of 48 caliber in the Texas market moved mainly in a range between US$22 and US$38 per 25-pound box.
Although the market experienced some occasional upticks, these movements failed to alter a structural trend marked by values considerably lower than those observed during the same periods in 2022 and 2023.
In those years, prices frequently exceeded the US$50 barrier and even reached highs close to US$70 per box, driven by a much more limited global supply at the destination ports.
The quantitative comparison also shows a significant correction with respect to the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Although both intermediate periods presented greater variability and particular climatic challenges, they recorded significantly higher average values for much of the first half of the year.
This reflected a North American market with a much more balanced relationship between the pace of imports and the speed of absorption by the retail and foodservice channels. In contrast, the beginning of 2026 has been marked by very rigid price ceilings that have been difficult for exporters in the region to break through.
May and June as the months with the highest concentration of commercial activity
The lowest price levels of the entire semester were recorded during May and June. Between weeks 20 and 24, the average price of size 48 remained stagnant near US$22 and US$25 per box, formally becoming one of the lowest trading floors observed for this specific period in the last five years.
During those weeks, two highly relevant logistical factors coincided. On the one hand, Mexico continued to overwhelmingly dominate US imports thanks to the constant flow from the producing regions of Michoacán and Jalisco, while local production in California reached its seasonal peak and entered the market more forcefully, increasing domestic competition.
Trade rivalry between origins reduced the market's capacity to absorb high volumes without sacrificing the value of the fruit, directly impacting the returns of the entire export chain to North America.
