How to protect avocado orchards during El Niño?

November 3, 2026

El Niño 2026–2027: How to Prepare Avocado Orchards

The phenomenon known as “El Niño” is intensifying. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it could become one of the strongest episodes since at least 1950. The organization’s forecasts point to a high probability that this event will continue through February 2027, bringing changes in temperature and rainfall patterns across the regions it affects.

Forecasts indicate that this climate event is expected to bring increased cloud cover in Mediterranean climates, as well as high levels of atmospheric humidity and significant temperature fluctuations that may alter the current dynamics of avocado orchards.

For avocado growers, preparation begins with one question: What is the most likely risk to affect my orchard? A wetter season may require greater attention to drainage and root health, while in areas exposed to heat and drought, the priority is to preserve soil moisture and protect the fruit.

What is the most likely risk to affect my orchard? El Niño's effects vary by region.

In an interview with Gonzalo Vargas, an Agricultural Engineer at Allpabio, a Chilean company specializing in biofertilizers and biostimulants, he explains that the answer does not lie in adopting specific measures exclusively for the arrival of “El Niño,” but rather in taking a proactive approach through orchard management practices that strengthen overall orchard conditions.

“There is no special little pill for El Niño: these are always the management practices you have always followed,” he points out.

Although El Niño is expected to reach very strong intensity, its effects may vary depending on the region and time of year. Therefore, management decisions must take into account the conditions of each orchard and local forecasts.

Along these lines, Gonzalo Vargas recommends checking forecasts frequently and identifying areas of the property where water could accumulate.

When Excessive Rainfall Is the Main Risk

The northern and central coasts of Peru are among the areas that need to prepare for potentially higher-than-usual rainfall. In a statement published on October 16, the ENFEN Multisectoral Commission projected above-average rainfall along the northern and central coasts and in the northwestern highlands during the summer of 2027.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a higher probability of above-normal precipitation across much of California for the November 2026–January 2027 period.

In Chile, the October Climate Trends Bulletin issued by the Chilean Meteorological Directorate projects above-average accumulated rainfall along the coast of the Valparaíso Region and in the Metropolitan Region. This outlook covers the November 2026–January 2027 quarter.

What Can Avocado Growers Do in the Event of Heavy Rainfall?

Before the rains arrive, Vargas recommends walking through the orchard to identify where water accumulates and assessing the best way to drain excess water. He warns that even on sloping properties, water can run down from higher ground and accumulate in low-lying areas or sections with more clay-rich soils. Depending on the property's conditions, his advice is to prepare the soil and consider using raised beds to improve drainage.

The main risk in areas that remain waterlogged is a lack of oxygen in the roots, explains the Agricultural Engineer at Allpabio. “Generalized root suffocation began to occur (…) and then came Phytophthora,” he recalls from his experience during the 1997 episode.

As an additional measure, he suggests using plant cover crops to help reduce the risk of root suffocation, emphasizing the importance of selecting species without allelopathic effects, citing fava beans as an example.

The advisor warns that even rootstocks selected for their tolerance can suffer damage when exposed to prolonged waterlogging. Therefore, the choice of planting material must be accompanied by proper soil and water management.

For Gonzalo Vargas, it is essential to distinguish between a well-pruned orchard, where light and air circulate more freely, and an overgrown one, where dense foliage limits light penetration and ventilation. He explains that more closed canopies create favorable conditions for fungal development, whereas proper pruning allows light to enter and air to circulate, helping preserve fruit quality after harvest.

He also warns that spring and summer rainfall can increase the risk of problems such as anthracnose and stem-end rot. In addition, during periods of increased cloud cover, reduced tree transpiration can limit calcium transport to the fruit, affecting firmness and shortening its postharvest life.

Nevertheless, episodes associated with these conditions also offer positive aspects for orchard management. These include the effective replenishment of reservoirs and higher atmospheric humidity, which favor the presence of native insects. These organisms play a key role in pollination, benefiting fruit set in orchards that maintain adequate water and nutritional management.

When Drought and Heat Prevail

In producing regions with tropical climates, such as Mexico, increased water stress and high temperatures significantly intensify pressure from the wood fungus complex, considered a serious phytosanitary threat to the crop. These accumulated stress factors could leave local orchards weakened and lead to an estimated reduction of between 35% and 40% in local production.

In Colombia, the IDEAM warns that El Niño's effects vary according to region, altitude, and time of year. The possibility of water deficits does not rule out rainfall. The agency notes that a rainy season takes place in parts of the country between October and early December.

For Chile, Gonzalo Vargas emphasizes that orchard preparation should take two important factors into account: spring rainfall and the heat expected in January and February. Meanwhile, the agency SERNAPRED declared a National Preventive Early Warning for High Temperatures, effective from November 1, 2026, through March 31, 2027, to strengthen monitoring ahead of potential extreme heat events during the summer.

What Measures Can Avocado Growers Take in the Event of Heat and Drought?

For orchards facing limited water availability, Vargas explains that pruning is a highly effective tool for managing canopy size and reducing the amount of foliage that transpires. He also suggests using chipped pruning material as ground cover.

“This way, I cover the soil and prevent excessive water evaporation,” he explains.

He also maintains that pruning should be planned according to tree conditions and expected temperatures. During periods of extreme heat, removing too much foliage can expose branches and fruit to direct sunlight. Therefore, it is best to determine the timing and intensity of pruning based on the specific needs of each orchard.

The engineer advises irrigating according to the crop's requirements and avoiding overfertilization. He warns that under dry conditions, it is important to monitor soil and water salinity, as this can affect the roots' ability to absorb water.

He also mentions the use of biostimulants as part of his strategy for managing stress. Their application should be evaluated according to orchard conditions and the characteristics of each product, as a complement to proper irrigation and nutrition management.

Flowering and Fruit Set: Protecting the Next Harvest

Temperature and water availability in an orchard can also influence flowering and fruit set, with effects that become evident in the following harvest.

In northern Peru, Vargas focuses on Piura and Lambayeque. According to the agronomist, extreme heat is already resulting in reduced flowering and fruit set. He also warns that these conditions could favor the presence of wood fungi in orchards.

In Chile, by contrast, he believes that better water availability and less dry conditions could benefit flowering and fruit set in well-managed orchards.

In his analysis, he points out that the 2026 flowering season will be important for the 2027 harvest. His recommendation is to reach this stage with a properly managed canopy, a reviewed nutritional program, and ongoing monitoring of weather conditions.

In cases where rainfall delays field operations or irrigation, he notes that some growers resort to foliar applications to supplement their programs. He emphasizes that decisions regarding products, dosages, frequency, and application methods must be based on nutritional assessments and local conditions. He also adds that there is no universal solution for all orchards.

He also highlights the importance of protecting pollinators and monitoring their activity during flowering, together with recording the development of flowers, fruit set, and fruit drop. This information makes it possible to identify differences between orchard areas and adjust management practices for subsequent seasons.

After the Event: Recovering and Protecting Value

According to Vargas, when an orchard has already experienced flooding, extreme heat, or drought, the first step is to assess the damage before taking action. Examining roots, soil moisture, foliage, and fruit makes it possible to distinguish areas that need drainage recovery from those requiring adjustments to their water supply.

Following a heat wave, the University of California recommends adjusting irrigation for trees that have lost a significant portion of their leaves, as they may have difficulty moving water. Avoiding soil saturation helps reduce the risk of root rot.

If fruit has a reduced storage capacity following a rainy period, Vargas recommends shortening the time between harvest and sale. This means reducing the number of days fruit remains at the packing facility and, whenever possible, prioritizing destinations with shorter transit times and faster sales.

If fruit has a reduced storage capacity following a rainy period, Vargas recommends shortening the time between harvest and sale.

From Global Forecasts to Daily Decisions

Gonzalo Vargas emphasizes the importance of checking forecasts frequently and following their updates as a weather event approaches. He explains that a seasonal alert allows growers to prepare resources and inspect infrastructure, while short-term local forecasts help determine when to carry out field operations.

“Today, we can prevent problems,” the advisor points out.

To achieve this, climate information must be combined with observations from within the orchard: where water accumulates, how long the soil takes to dry, which areas show signs of stress, and how flowering is progressing.

Preparation for El Niño 2026–2027 will not be the same across all producing regions. The advantage will lie in identifying local risks and taking action before excess water, drought, or heat compromise roots, fruit, and the next harvest.