South Africa's numbers at the start of the 2026 season

South Africa begins its European season with the strongest start in recent years

South Africa is already in the midst of its harvest season, and initial data from the 2026 season show a more robust start than in the previous two years. While the start dates are similar across seasons, the key difference lies in the rate of growth and the volumes achieved during the first few weeks of trading.

Comparison of campaigns and acceleration of volumes

South African shipments to Europe typically begin towards the end of the first quarter. In 2024, the first shipments were recorded between weeks 9 and 11, although with practically marginal volumes, with significant activity only beginning from week 13. In 2025, the start shifted slightly to weeks 12 and 13, while in 2026 the first shipments also appeared around week 12. In all three years, the peak season is between weeks 13 and 20.

However, the comparison between campaigns shows important differences. While 2024 showed gradual growth and reached its peak only between weeks 16 and 19, with volumes between 213 and 224 containers, 2025 showed a more dynamic development and reached approximately 235 containers in week 17.

The 2026 season has gone a step further. After starting shipments in week 12, South Africa recorded the fastest growth in recent years, reaching nearly 300 containers between weeks 17 and 18, clearly surpassing the peaks seen in the previous two years. This makes the current start to the season the strongest in the last three years for the European market.

Evolution of the weekly volume of South African avocado containers entering the European market

Price behavior and distribution by size

Meanwhile, prices show a relatively orderly structure according to size. For much of the season, sizes 16 and 18 lead the way in the European market, initially fluctuating between €2.75 and €3.00/kg. Sizes 14 and 20 follow closely behind, while smaller sizes, such as 30 and 32, lag behind at the lower end of the price range.

The price trends also reveal a common pattern across all sizes. Between weeks 13 and 20, a downward trend is observed, bringing prices to their lowest levels of the season, coinciding with the peak fruit arrival period. Subsequently, between weeks 22 and 24, a general recovery occurs, along with greater convergence among sizes, reducing the significant price gaps observed at the beginning of the season.

Weekly distribution point prices for South African avocados in Europe by size.

Outlook for the coming months

Although initial figures are positive for South Africa, the coming months will be crucial in assessing the season'sfinal performance . June, July, and August represent a critical portion of the supply from this origin, making these key weeks for monitoring potential weather risks or production issues similar to those observed during the previous season.

For now, the hard data shows that South Africa has started 2026 stronger than in previous years, achieving the highest start volumes of the recent series and successfully consolidating its presence in the European market during the first weeks of the season.

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