How does El Niño affect avocado flowering in Peru?

November 6, 2026

Warming sea temperatures off the Peruvian coast and the prospect of a warmer, rainier summer in the north raise a question for the 2027 avocado season: How much fruit will make it to harvest?

The first signs can be found in the state of the orchards in September 2026. While some trees were already in full bloom or beginning to form fruit, others were already showing weak flowering or were still presenting vegetative shoots.

What did the forecasts show for the Peruvian coast?

During the V International Hass Avocado Congress in Peru, Gustavo Ywanaga compared the evolution of sea surface temperature in Paita, Chimbote, Callao and Ilo with that of previous warm periods, such as 1997-1998, 2016-2017 and 2022-2023.

In the Niño 1+2 region, located in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, the Coastal El Niño Index (ICEN) reached +3.29°C between June and August 2026. This sector registered +2.92°C during the same period in 2023. Both values indicate how much the temperature rose compared to its usual average.

According to the ENFEN statement included in Ywanaga's presentation, the organization projected that the coastal El Niño would persist through the summer of 2027. The forecast indicated an extraordinary magnitude until January and a strong to extraordinary intensity in February and March.

For the northern coast of Peru, above-normal rainfall was expected from November onwards, in addition to air temperatures much higher than usual along the entire coast during the September-November quarter.

Four situations in the orchards

In the Olmos region, engineer Mario Pozo Cárdenas documented fields with vegetative growth and others where flowering was just beginning unevenly. In Jayanca, he observed fields with little flowering, while in Ica, he recorded orchards with abundant blooms.

These differences are important to consider for the next harvest. In fields with few blossoms, fewer fruits might form initially. Meanwhile, in fields where avocados were already beginning to form, the risk was fruit drop. Pozo compiled these differences into a matrix to assess production risk based on the condition of the trees in September.

Pozo's matrix considers when the tree was harvested, what reserves it had by September, and how far flowering had progressed. In trees that were already beginning to form fruit, the focus shifts to fruit set, the stage in which the flower gives rise to a small fruit.

The engineer identifies the predominance of vegetative shoots as the most worrying scenario for the 2027 Peruvian avocado campaign. He explained that heat, available nitrogen, and insufficient floral induction can favor excessive vegetative growth.

In trees that already had newly set fruit, he suggests that the priority is to reduce competition from those shoots and support the developing fruit.

What can be expected from production in 2027?      

The matrix shows us two different ways in which the fruit load could be reduced. In orchards with little or incomplete flowering, there may be fewer avocados from the start, while in those where fruit set has occurred, the load could decrease if some of the fruit falls.

Early harvested trees that reached September with good reserves and in full bloom start from a lower risk condition.

Considering the analyses of both experts, the Peruvian harvest will depend on how much productive land is in each of the situations described and on the evolution of the fruit load in the orchards.

Orchards with weak or incomplete flowering may produce fewer fruits, while those that have already set fruit risk losing some of the newly formed fruit. Distinguishing the relative importance of each situation in the producing regions will help estimate the total fruit yield for the 2027 harvest.