Volume and sizes: the challenge of avocados in Ecuador

When analyzing the prospects for an avocado campaign, one of the first questions is usually how much volume we'll have available. This makes sense: production gives us an initial reference point for sizing the season. However, there's another variable that can be just as important and doesn't always receive the same attention: the composition of that volume.

In Ecuador, we are going through a period in which water availability requires special attention. We have had weeks with little rainfall in some productive areas, and although there has been some rain recently, we still need to monitor how conditions will evolve over the coming months.

It's too early to quantify any potential impact on production. Fruit counts will give us a clearer picture later. But we do know that we're at a stage where having the necessary water is crucial for fruit development.

And here's a difference I consider important: it's not just about giving crops the water we have available, but the water they really need.

When fruit is growing, a water deficit can cause fruit abortion, but it can also affect fruit development, resulting in a higher proportion of smaller fruit sizes. This means that we could eventually maintain some of the expected volume growth and still experience a different harvest than initially projected.

Volume is only one part of the equation

This point is especially relevant when we move from a productive to a commercial perspective.

From a field perspective, a higher concentration of smaller sizes could represent an unfavorable outcome. However, commercially, we still need to observe what happens with the other producing countries and with the final availability that reaches the markets.

Ecuador is not acting in isolation. What happens in Colombia, Peru, and Chile will also contribute to determining the trade scenario we will encounter. If there is an abundance of small fruit from various origins, those sizes may face a more complex situation. If availability changes, the outlook may also be different.

That's why I think we should avoid evaluating a season in advance solely based on a tonnage projection.

We can achieve a certain volume, but obtain a different size distribution. We can produce less fruit, but encounter different market conditions than expected. The production result and the market result don't necessarily tell the same story.

Manage today to see the results tomorrow

We will still have to wait to see the effect that current conditions may have on Ecuador's upcoming production. The first areas could begin producing during September, while we expect a more significant first wave towards the end of November. Our peak will arrive later, during January and February.

Until then, water management will be one of the variables we must follow most closely.

Fruit counts will show us if there were any effects on volume, and later we can observe how that production is distributed among different sizes. Only then will we have a much more complete picture of the season.

Because ultimately, producing the same volume doesn't necessarily mean achieving the same result. Quantity matters, but so does the quality of the fruit we produce and the conditions under which it will find its place in the market.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador