The weather puts logistics at the heart of the Ecuadorian campaign

In Ecuador, we are currently experiencing two contrasting weather patterns. While the coast has seen a significant increase in rainfall over the past two weeks, the highlands continue to experience a severe drought, although the precipitation in week 39 provided some relief.

We continue to monitor both the global and coastal El Niño. According to the information I've reviewed, the former appears to be slowing down, while the coastal El Niño maintains significant intensity. Along the Ecuadorian coast, we are already experiencing increased rainfall, which keeps us on alert in the coming weeks.

In this scenario, the start of our campaign could be brought forward. We had planned to begin in week 47, but now we see the possibility of starting between weeks 44 and 45. The fruit has an average dry matter content of 21% and is close to entering our export range. Starting earlier would also help us thin the trees before the second flowering, which is the most important for us.

This potential early harvest opens up opportunities for Ecuadorian avocados. Taking advantage of them will depend on transportation conditions and how well our volumes align with those from other origins.

The opportunity depends on when Peru arrives

Despite the challenging months, the second flowering period is progressing favorably. Currently, production is expected to peak in February and March rather than January and February.

This shift needs to be evaluated in conjunction with the Peruvian calendar. If Peru enters late, focusing on February and March could be advantageous. If they enter early, competing in those months would be more challenging.

We also observed a third flowering, known as the "loca" or "traviesa" (crazy or mischievous) bloom, with an unusually high crop load and production expected in May and June. These months coincide with the Peruvian harvest. There could be some export opportunities if there are gaps between their producing regions, but otherwise, the local market would be the only alternative for that fruit.

The journey to the port is also part of the campaign

The rains are a particular concern due to their potential impact on logistics. We've already experienced some difficult days at the port of Guayaquil and are closely monitoring transport from the production areas.

Our main port is about 12 to 14 hours from our production areas. The crops are in the mountains, and we have to travel down to the coast. Along the way, we can encounter landslides in the rainforest areas and, further down, problems with river flooding.

We've faced similar situations before. Transit schedules, routes, and the type of transport will be key to organizing shipments. Waiting times and delays can also increase costs and affect delivery times.

A business meeting before the start

Interanza will be participating in Fruit Attraction for the sixth consecutive year. For us, the trade fair comes at a particularly useful time. We are about to begin our campaign and can discuss programs, sales, and new opportunities with our clients.

It's also an opportunity to learn about other origins, what sizes they'll have available, and when they might enter the market. This information helps us prepare for the first quarter, when our campaign gains momentum.

The potential early harvest must be accompanied by logistical and commercial preparation. We need to understand the condition of the fruit, how we can transport it, and what storage space it will require at its destination.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador