Climate and flowering: the signs that mark the new season in Ecuador

As we move into a new season, evolving weather conditions are beginning to provide relevant signals for avocado production in Ecuador. Today, we continue to closely monitor both the development of El Niño in the Pacific and its potential effects on production areas.

Over the past few months, we have already observed an initial impact on the flowering of some crops. Higher temperatures can reduce the stimulus for flowering, and this year we have experienced different conditions than in previous seasons, with a winter that, on average, did not reach the same intensity of cold. We have also recorded high relative humidity and unexpected rainfall.

However, the situation changes when we look at crops located inland and at higher altitudes. There, the flowering cycles occurred earlier, and the scenario we observe today is different.

For our crops in the mountains, the signs are starting to look positive. We're coming off a year of lower production, and the flowering that will give rise to the next harvests is showing good progress so far. The first flowering, whose fruit will begin to ripen between October and November, managed to get through the worst of the drought. The flowering corresponding to February and March is also showing favorable development, and we see potential for achieving good yields.

The next challenge will be the rains

Having overcome the worst of the drought does not mean the climate challenge is over. Now our attention is shifting to the rainfall that could occur during the harvest season.

In the highlands, January, February, and March are historically associated with rainfall. Therefore, rather than simply asking if it will rain, we must observe its intensity. Increased precipitation could create new challenges for maintaining the pace and volume of the harvest.

We are already taking measures in the fields and packing facilities to mitigate a potential increase in fungal activity associated with these conditions. At the same time, it will be necessary to monitor low-lying areas for possible flooding and its effects on logistics.

This reality reminds us that a harvest season is not defined by a single weather event. After facing drought, we must prepare for a scenario in which the challenge could shift to the exact opposite extreme: managing periods of higher rainfall effectively without compromising fruit quality or the continuity of operations.

Ecuador's challenge is to produce more and better.

The signs from the upcoming blooms are positive, but the situation also demands continued attention to the production challenges that will accompany the coming months. After weathering the worst of the drought, the focus will be on maintaining harvest volumes and momentum in the face of potential rainfall.

Producing more and better will be a major challenge for Ecuador. Transforming the potential shown by the upcoming blooms into increased production, while adapting crop management to climatic conditions and maintaining the quality necessary to supply existing markets.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador