Jorge Molina
Colombia adjusts its volumes and the market remains under pressure
Colombia
Week 43 and export volumes in Colombia are adjusting. We're still hovering around 100 containers per week, a figure that, compared to previous years, represents approximately 30% less.
The fruit arriving at packing plants continues to show a size distribution below that of the most popular sizes in the European market, our main destination. We continue to see that large sizes represent approximately 10%, while small sizes dominate with nearly 50%, and the remaining percentage corresponds to medium sizes. It is precisely these last two groups that experience the most pressure and whose prices adjust most quickly downwards when the market dictates it.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate showed no significant movement during the last week, but it continues to be a factor that reduces the attractiveness of exports. In the fields, purchase offers continue to hover around $3,000 per kilo, with significant differences depending on size: large fruit is around $5,000, medium fruit around $3,500, and small fruit around $1,800. These prices correspond to certified fruit with export-quality standards.
The international market, especially in Europe, is also not showing the best dynamism. As we have discussed in our columns, Colombian fruit arrivals during week 43 typically coincide with a market adjustment period. However, what lies ahead deserves special attention: some exporters are already making purchase offers directly from the fields under consignment arrangements, a practice that calls for caution and a thorough analysis of commercial risks before making any decisions.
In this scenario, it will be interesting to observe how oil processors and the domestic market benefit, and how they adjust to absorb larger production volumes, especially of smaller-sized fruit. Opportunities exist there as well, but they will depend on the capacity of the industry and the domestic market to respond to an increasing supply.
Meanwhile, at international events, such as Fruit Attraction in Madrid and IFPA, it's clear that much of the sector's attention is focused on the evolution of weather patterns, international conflicts, and other geopolitical developments that continue to shape global trade. This is a developing situation, and it's still too early to predict with certainty what its effects will be on trade flows.
Questions are also gaining traction about how Colombia's exports will perform in 2027, what volumes Peru will bring that same year, and what opportunities might open up for Colombia in the US market during January and February of 2027. This last possibility, in particular, caught my attention in recent conversations: a glimmer of hope seems to be emerging for Colombia in the United States during those months. For now, it's a sign worth exploring further, but we still need to wait for more concrete information.
See you later!
Jorge Molina Duque
Operations Manager, Quality Studio CO
jorge.molina@qualitystudio.cl
Colombia
