Analysis of the avocado market in Europe during the first weeks of 2025

Víctor Ruete, Director of Tropical Millenium, a company belonging to Baika

The European avocado market showed particularly interesting dynamics in the second week of the year. Good fruit availability was accompanied by a gradual clearing of older stock, leading to a notable increase in prices for smaller sizes in nearby markets. Experts believe this trend could extend to other sizes in the coming weeks.

Current Price and Volume Situation

Available market volumes decreased compared to the previous week, while prices in the main Mediterranean origins began to rise. Although these increases are still moderate, they are impacting the entire size range, including the largest. However, not all the news is positive: some smaller batches from overseas, affected by quality issues, are being sold below cost. This has reduced demand for these products, which in many cases are being discarded, potentially leading to a rapid market stabilization in the coming weeks.

Projection by Origins

The European market is preparing for an increase in the share of Mediterranean fruit in the coming weeks. However, weather and logistical factors have slowed harvests in some key regions:

• Israel: Rains have resulted in uneven harvests.
• Spain and Portugal: Christmas festivities and rain have delayed harvesting activity.
• Morocco: A change in the price structure has reduced the available supply.

Demand and promotional activity

During the last weeks of December, the market reached equilibrium thanks to an aggressive promotional strategy and attractive retail prices. These actions allowed for a partial reduction in accumulated inventories, although stocks of medium and large sizes remain, particularly in lots that have experienced quality issues due to longer logistical transit times. In contrast, small fruit is notably scarce. With the start of January, commercial activity slowed due to the traditional post-holiday slump, but projections point to a gradual recovery in demand once the winter holidays are over.

Market projections

Thus, estimates of overseas arrivals, combined with price trends in the Mediterranean, suggest a weekly average of around 12.5 million kilograms. This figure indicates that the market could maintain a reasonable balance in the coming weeks, provided that demand recovers the expected momentum after the holiday period.

Víctor Ruete, Director of Tropical Millenium, a company belonging to Baika