Opportunity for California: Less supply, better prices

California growers harvested 12.1 million pounds of Hass avocados, 212,000 pounds of Lamb Hass, and 93,000 pounds of GEM avocados during the week ending July 3, bringing the weekly harvest total to 12.5 million pounds. To date, California has harvested approximately 235 million pounds, placing the season at 71% completion. As expected, the season has entered its declining production cycle. Weekly harvest volumes continue to decrease, the number of bins is decreasing, and inventories at both the orchard and packinghouse levels are beginning to adjust. Harvest activity continues to shift northward, with approximately 85% of California's current production coming from the northern districts.

Although the harvest will continue for much of the summer, weekly volumes are expected to decline steadily as more growers complete their harvests.

Despite lower production in California, the market remained relatively unchanged this week. The main factor continues to be the amount of fruit available in the overall market. Total U.S. industry inventories continue to exceed 70 million pounds, maintaining a comfortable supply and preventing the higher prices many California growers had hoped to see as the domestic harvest shrinks.

Imported fruit continues to influence market dynamics. Mexico remains an active supplier to the U.S. market, while Peru continues to ship significant volumes to North America. The overlap of imported fruit with California's summer harvest has created a highly competitive environment, giving retailers multiple sourcing options and limiting opportunities for significant price increases despite California's smaller harvests.

A notable difference this year has been the absence of aggressive promotions from retailers, which have historically helped accelerate avocado sales during the summer months. Retail prices have generally remained stable, but without extensive promotional support, demand has not responded at the pace many in the industry anticipated. As a result, inventories have remained elevated for longer than expected.

Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the continued decline in California's harvests, along with the reduction in total industry inventories. As available supply decreases in July and August, the industry remains optimistic that a better balance between supply and demand will provide stronger pricing opportunities for California growers during the later months of the season.

California avocados continue to offer retailers exceptional eating quality, freshness, and the consumer appeal of locally grown fruit. As the harvest progresses in the northern districts, growers remain focused on delivering premium quality while navigating one of the most competitive global supply environments in recent years.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com