Peru and Mexico saturate the market: California competes with high costs

The California avocado harvest remained steady last week. Growers harvested approximately 16 million pounds of Hass avocados, 257,000 pounds of Lamb Hass, and 1.05 million pounds of GEM, bringing the total weekly production to just over 17 million pounds.

Despite the high harvest volumes, the market moved in the opposite direction. Prices weakened during the week as the U.S. market continues to face abundant inventories and significant supply from various origins. Mexico is marketing both old and new crop fruit, while Peru entered the holiday season with an estimated 17 million pounds in inventory within the trade channel. The result has been a highly competitive market, with buyers benefiting from the ample supply and greater purchasing options.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was demand. With the Fourth of July holiday approaching and the FIFA World Cup still generating consumer interest, much of the industry expected stronger activity. Although avocado consumption remains healthy in historical terms, retail sales fell short of expectations, preventing the seasonal price surge many anticipated after two weeks of stability.

One factor to watch closely is the evolution of avocado marketing in the United States. National consumer-directed advertising has become noticeably less visible than in previous years. Instead of massive television campaigns to boost overall consumption, APEAM has increasingly redirected its promotional resources toward targeted programs with retailers and point-of-sale support to move Mexican avocados in stores. While these initiatives may be effective for participating retailers, some California growers have expressed concern that this shift does little to expand overall consumer demand, while further strengthening the imported supply in an already competitive market.

The California avocado industry continues to face a unique set of challenges. Growers operate with some of the highest labor, water, regulatory, and production costs in the global avocado business, while competing with increasing import volumes from countries with substantially lower costs. As imports continue to expand during California's peak season, maintaining a healthy and profitable market becomes increasingly difficult.

Looking ahead, the industry will closely monitor retail activity following the holiday season. Improved inventory turnover will be key to restoring market balance and stabilizing prices as California moves into the heart of its 2026 harvest. With quality remaining excellent and local fruit readily available, many growers are optimistic that stronger retail demand could help improve market conditions in the coming weeks.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com