June: Quality regains prominence in a market seeking to stabilize

Following the sharp correction recorded in May, the Chinese Hass avocado market showed the first signs of stabilization during June. Although prices remained well below the highs reached in April, the market began to more clearly differentiate between high-quality fruit and fruit affected by condition or presentation issues.

Unlike the previous month, June was not characterized by abrupt price declines, but rather by a gradual adjustment process in which sales velocity, fruit quality, and external factors played a greater role in price formation. At the same time, shipments from Peru remained high throughout much of the month, keeping the market under constant supply pressure.

Week 23: Premium Fruit Begins to Stand Out

Week 23 marked the beginning of a significant shift in the market structure.

Four-kilogram cartons traded between RMB 30 and RMB 75, while 10 kg cartons ranged from RMB 50 to RMB 130. Although these price ranges still reflected a market under pressure from oversupply, higher-quality fruit packed under recognized brands began to recover.

This development confirms that once the period of greatest market saturation passes, the Chinese market quickly resumes rewarding quality. The price gap between premium fruit and generic fruit began widening again, allowing exporters that maintained high grading and packing standards to achieve better returns.

During the week, 88 containers departed from Peru, continuing to replenish future supply into the Chinese market.

Week 24: Gradual Improvement, but Quality Continues to Drive Returns

During Week 24, the market continued its moderate recovery.

Four-kilogram cartons traded between RMB 30 and RMB 85, while 10 kg cartons reached as high as RMB 150.

However, the recovery was not uniform. Lower-quality fruit continued to experience slow turnover, forcing several importers to maintain discounted prices in order to clear inventories. In contrast, higher-quality lots continued to find buyers more easily.

This once again demonstrated that under conditions of abundant supply, commercial quality—not origin—becomes the primary differentiating factor.

During the week, 86 containers departed Peru, maintaining a high shipment pace toward China.

Week 25: The 10 kg Format Leads the Recovery

Week 25 showed a more noticeable improvement, particularly in the 10 kg format.

Four-kilogram cartons traded between RMB 40 and RMB 85, while 10 kg cartons reached RMB 165–170, consolidating a sustained recovery compared with previous weeks.

Exports from Peru remained elevated, with 84 containers shipped, a volume that would continue to exert pressure on the market in the weeks ahead.

Week 26: Weather Conditions Slow the Market

Week 26 displayed a different market dynamic. On this occasion, price pressure was driven primarily by weather conditions rather than fruit volumes.

Heavy rainfall throughout the week significantly reduced buyer traffic at the main wholesale markets, slowing sales and triggering a slight price correction.

Four-kilogram cartons traded between RMB 50 and RMB 70, while 10 kg cartons ranged between RMB 120 and RMB 140.

Unlike other corrections observed during the season, this decline was mainly the result of a temporary slowdown in commercial activity rather than a structural deterioration in the supply-demand balance.

Shipments from Peru declined to 47 containers, representing a significant reduction compared with previous weeks due to the blank sailings from Chancay.

Strategic Market Assessment

June offers several important conclusions for Hass avocado exporters supplying the Chinese market.

1. The most critical phase of the correction appears to be over

Following the sharp adjustment experienced during May, June presented a considerably more stable market. Although prices remained below April levels, the market no longer experienced the abrupt declines driven by panic selling or widespread inventory liquidation.

2. Quality once again becomes the main differentiating factor

One of the month's most important developments was the growing separation between premium and generic fruit.

While lower-quality lots continued to struggle with slow turnover, well-presented fruit carrying recognized brands and arriving in good condition steadily regained value.

This trend confirms that once the market stabilizes, buyers once again prioritize consistency and quality over price.

3. The 10 kg format continues to show greater resilience

Throughout most of June, 10 kg cartons recovered more quickly and consistently than the 4 kg format.

This performance further reinforces the 10 kg format as the segment best positioned to sustain prices during periods of market volatility.

4. External factors can also influence market dynamics

The rainfall experienced during Week 26 demonstrated that market performance does not depend solely on available supply. Weather events affecting buyer attendance can also generate temporary price adjustments, even when the market's underlying fundamentals remain relatively stable.

Conclusion

June 2026 represented a transitional month for the Chinese Hass avocado market. Following the sharp correction observed in May, the market began to establish a new equilibrium, with a gradual recovery led by higher-quality fruit and the 10 kg format.

Nevertheless, the large number of containers that continued to depart from Peru throughout much of the month indicates that supply pressure has not completely disappeared. In this context, commercial discipline will remain essential. Maintaining high quality standards, closely monitoring in-transit volumes, and carefully planning export programs will be critical factors for protecting profitability in a market that continues to offer opportunities while demanding increasingly precise decision-making.

André Vargas
Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co
Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC
avargas@fruwer.com