May 2026: The Chinese Hass Avocado Market Enters Its Most Aggressive Correction of the Year

After several weeks characterized by exceptionally high prices and limited supply, May 2026 marked a dramatic shift in the dynamics of the Chinese Hass avocado market. What began as a continuation of the strength observed in April ultimately became one of the most severe corrections seen in recent months, once again highlighting the Chinese market's sensitivity to abrupt increases in supply.

The price decline observed during May was not the result of weakening demand, but rather the consequence of a significant increase in volumes arriving in the market. The combination of high prices throughout April and signs of supply shortages encouraged many exporters to increase their shipping programs, subsequently creating an imbalance between supply and the market’s absorption capacity.

Week 18: The Market Still Showed Strength

Week 18 largely closed out the positive trend observed throughout April.

4 kg cartons were traded between RMB 120 and 130, while 10 kg cartons maintained solid levels between RMB 240 and 260.

However, warning signs were already beginning to emerge behind these prices. During this week, 133 containers departed from Peru to China.

Although these shipments had not yet directly impacted Chinese wholesale markets, they were already signaling considerable pressure for the weeks ahead.

Week 19: The Correction Begins

Week 19 marked the beginning of the correction.

Prices for 4 kg cartons fell to a range of RMB 80 to 110, while 10 kg cartons declined to levels between RMB 180 and 200.

A total of 26 shipments departed from Peru to China.

The speed of the decline once again confirmed a structural characteristic of the Chinese market: when supply increases rapidly, buyers immediately adjust their price expectations.

Week 20: Pressure Intensifies

During Week 20, the situation deteriorated significantly.

4 kg cartons traded between RMB 40 and 80, while 10 kg cartons fell to levels between RMB 100 and 160.

This sharp correction coincided with 127 shipments from Peru.

At this stage, the market began experiencing a recurring phenomenon typical of oversupply periods: buyers slowed their purchasing activity in anticipation of even lower prices, while importers attempted to clear inventories before receiving new arrivals.

This behavior generated additional downward pressure on prices and accelerated the adjustment process.

Week 21: The Most Critical Moment of the Month

Week 21 represented the lowest point of May and the lowest levels seen in years for good-quality fruit.

4 kg cartons traded between RMB 20 and 75, while 10 kg cartons moved between RMB 100 and 150.

Only 4 containers departed from Peru due to vessel delays.

Uncertainty began to dominate commercial decisions. Many operators chose to reduce or postpone export programs out of concern that they would continue fueling an oversupply situation that had already significantly eroded returns.

Week 22: The Lowest Levels of the Year for 10 kg Cartons

Week 22 confirmed that the correction had not yet run its course.

4 kg cartons traded between RMB 30 and 70, while 10 kg cartons recorded transactions as low as RMB 50—a scenario that would have been virtually unthinkable just a few weeks earlier when the same format exceeded RMB 300.

During this week, 82 containers departed from Peru.

Although the market remained under pressure, signs began to emerge that older inventories were gradually being absorbed.

Week 23: Early Signs of Stabilization

Week 23 showed indications that the market may have found a temporary floor.

4 kg cartons remained between RMB 30 and 75, while 10 kg cartons ranged between RMB 50 and 130.

More importantly, a much clearer differentiation began to emerge between generic fruit and premium fruit.

High-quality fruit packed under recognized brands started showing price increases and improved turnover rates. This suggests that even during periods of intense market pressure, the market continues to reward quality and penalize inconsistency.

What Really Happened in May?

The primary explanation behind this correction does not lie in a decline in Chinese demand.

On the contrary, the evidence points to a classic mismatch between supply and market absorption capacity.

The high prices observed during April encouraged an aggressive increase in shipments from origin. When those volumes began arriving simultaneously, the market lost its ability to absorb them at the same pace, resulting in inventory accumulation and a rapid decline in prices.

In other words:

The market did not collapse because China stopped buying avocados. The market corrected because it received more fruit than it could absorb in the short term.

Lessons for Exporters

1. High Prices Create Overconfidence

Whenever the market reaches extraordinary price levels, the immediate reaction is often to increase shipments. May once again demonstrates that this strategy can be risky when many players make the same decision simultaneously.

2. Quality Continues to Make the Difference

While average prices collapsed, premium fruit began recovering value more quickly. The gap between generic products and differentiated products widened once again.

3. China Remains an Extremely Volume-Sensitive Market

The speed of the correction observed between Weeks 18 and 22 demonstrates that relatively small variations in supply can generate very significant changes in returns.

4. Inventory Management Is Just as Important as Production

Producing good fruit is not enough. Understanding existing inventories at destination and knowing when the next vessels will arrive is becoming increasingly important for protecting profitability.

Conclusion

May 2026 will be remembered as the month when the Chinese market moved from euphoria to correction in a matter of weeks. Prices, which had reached seasonal highs only a month earlier, experienced dramatic declines due to the sharp increase in supply.

However, behind this decline there is also a positive signal: toward the end of the month, the first signs of stabilization began to emerge, particularly for high-quality fruit and recognized brands.

The question now is not whether the market can recover, but how quickly it will be able to absorb the volumes currently in transit. The answer to that question will define the behavior of the Hass avocado market in China over the coming weeks and determine whether May was simply a temporary correction or the beginning of a more prolonged period of price pressure.

André Vargas
Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co
Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC
avargas@fruwer.com