“Sales are growing in almost every market in the United States”

Emiliano Escobedo, president of the Hass Avocado Board

The United States is the world's largest avocado market. All Latin American producing countries want a piece of the pie, but one giant dominates the market: Mexico. This year, record-breaking export volumes are being reached from the Mexican states of Michoacán and Jalisco, raising the question of whether the US market can continue to absorb so much fruit from its neighbor, in addition to the supplemental produce arriving from other countries, primarily Peru and Colombia.

Emiliano Escobedo, executive president of the U.S. Hass Avocado Board (HAB), believes that the increased volume and its downward impact on price are helping to expand consumption. This is supported by data showing increased business in nearly all the markets monitored by the organization.

A key statistical reference point is the Super Bowl, which year after year serves as a milestone to measure the behavior of avocado imports.

“Starting in January, we had a very significant volume for the Super Bowl. Compared to last year, the volume was almost 19% higher. After 14 weeks, we had received almost 440,000 tons, while last year during the same period, 370,000 tons arrived. So, that's an increase of 70,000 tons in just the first 14 weeks of the year,” Escobedo explains.

Are there any signs that fruit availability will decrease in the United States?

“The volume doesn’t depend on the United States, but the market is absorbing everything. The reason the numbers are where they are is because Mexico has more fruit and has been supplying at higher levels. We’re talking about 32,000 tons per week.”

- Where is that supply going, the supply that is capable of being absorbed?

“There is a very wide distribution and many promotions. A common reference point is the number of stores promoting avocados in the United States. It serves as an indicator of product distribution.”

- Are those promotions with lower-priced fruit or are there other options?

“It could be that they are promoting bags, large sizes, small sizes. We track volume nationally in terms of retail sales and in different markets. When asked where the fruit is going, all US markets are experiencing sales growth compared to last year. All of them. Of the 64 markets we monitor, 53 have growth greater than 10%.”

- Which cities do these growing markets represent?

“There are 53 cities, from Nashville, Louisville, Charlotte, St. Louis, New York, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh. And regions as well. But among the cities that have seen the greatest growth is Los Angeles, up 28%. It's one of the largest avocado markets in the world. Also the Southeast and New York, which is up almost 20%.”

- Will the impact of promotions on price last for a long time?

“I can’t speculate on the price, but the supply available for sale in the United States is high. Overall, we’re between 18% and 19% up compared to last year. And that allows supermarkets to be much more aggressive with their promotions.”

- Can this be understood as a long-term problem or as an opportunity to expand consumption?

“The number one barrier to buying avocados in the United States is price, followed by quality. At the time of this interview, the average price is between 93 and 95 cents per avocado. That's a very low level, below one dollar. Last year, the average price for the entire year was $1.17 per avocado. So, in the first few months, we're seeing a 24% decrease.”

California has been cautious with its harvest, hoping for better prices, but apparently that won't happen.

“California has already entered. The expected volume for this season is approximately 146,000 tons.

-Is what we experienced in the first half of the year a sign that there is more fruit available, or is it an early volume, concentrated in a short period of time?

“I think the answer is there is more fruit.

Has this phenomenon ultimately been beneficial for increased consumption?

“I’m fortunate enough not to be a producer, packer, importer, or involved in the business, feeling the effects of price, supply, demand, competition, and so on. I simply observe what happens as a spectator. What we saw after that year was like a balloon that you keep adding air to. Sometimes you have a lot of air, and then that balloon gets bigger. In other words, with this increased volume of fruit, consumption expands. I’ve seen on many occasions that, after a year like this, with a much larger volume, new consumers can emerge who couldn’t afford it before. When prices encourage them to buy, over time it becomes a more regular item.”

- But have we already reached the limit of tension between volume and consumption in the United States?

"We have not reached a ceiling, a limit on consumption in the United States, not at all."

- Given the prominence of Mexico, is there still room for other origins such as Peru or Colombia?

“I believe the main factor that determines whether a country can be a major player in the market is whether it has the volume and quality that the market will demand, during the season in which they are available. Mexico obviously has a very dominant share, but its fruit is also seasonal, with varying quality. Furthermore, it has a greater presence in certain markets than in others.”