Chinese Hass avocado market: April closes strong with warning signs

Chinese Hass Avocado Market: April Closes Strong with Warning Signs

The behavior of the Chinese market during April 2026 sent a clear signal to the export industry: as long as supply remains irregular and the market fails to build comfortable inventories, prices will continue to react strongly to any adjustment in availability.

Unlike other periods where the market quickly collapsed due to excess arrivals, April showed a different dynamic. Even with weeks of high volumes leaving from Peru, demand managed to absorb most of the fruit in relatively short periods, allowing for rapid recoveries after temporary corrections.

Week 14

Week 14 began with a very strong market. 4 kg boxes traded between RMB 130 and 145, while 10 kg boxes reached up to RMB 320, quite high levels considering the recent historical context of the Chinese market.

Shipments from Peru were moderate, with only 16 containers, which directly contributed to maintaining a limited supply at the destination. This combination of low available volume and good turnover allowed for solid prices to be sustained for both premium and good-quality commercial fruit.

Week 15

The 4kg boxes reached ranges between RMB 145 and 160, while the 10kg boxes reached up to RMB 360, levels that reflect a short fruit market.

This behavior generated renewed optimism among many exporters, which quickly translated into a sharp increase in shipments from Peru: 99 containers set sail for China during that week.

However, here again appears one of the most dangerous patterns in the Hass avocado business towards Asia: The Chinese market tends to encourage overreaction from the source.

When prices reach extraordinary levels, many exporters aggressively increase their shipping programs without considering that those same volumes will end up putting pressure on the market weeks later.

Week 16

Week 16 confirmed precisely that risk.

The 4kg boxes fell back to ranges as low as RMB 100 and then recovered to RMB 150, while the 10kg boxes adjusted towards RMB 250 to 300.

The drop was directly related to the increased volume following the heavy selling that had occurred earlier. However, the most important factor was the speed of the market's recovery: after a few days of pressure, prices began to stabilize again.

This leads to a relevant conclusion: The Chinese market is not currently showing a structural demand problem, but rather a high sensitivity to temporary supply peaks.

Departures from Peru fell drastically to just 7 containers this week.

Week 17

Recovery came quickly in week 17.

The 4kg boxes reached levels between RMB 150 and 170, while the 10kg boxes reached up to RMB 360.

However, this week a new element was added to the market dynamics: several arrivals of fruit from Kenya began to be observed.

While the market was strengthening again, Peru registered one of its highest peaks in exports during the period: 168 containers set sail for China. This raises further doubts about the sustainability of the prices observed in late April and early May.

Week 18: The market corrects again amid expectations of increased supply

In week 18, the market again began to show signs of adjustment.

The 4kg boxes fell back to RMB 120-130, while the 10kg boxes dropped to levels between RMB 240 and 260.

Although these values remain reasonable from a historical perspective, the adjustment reflects that the market is already beginning to anticipate the arrival of larger volumes.

Recent experience shows that China can sustain high prices when supply is fragmented or limited, but it also shows that any significant accumulation of fruit generates rapid corrections.

Conclusion

April 2026 confirmed that the Chinese market continues to be one of the most profitable destinations for Hass avocados when there is discipline in supply and quality management.

However, it also demonstrates once again that the greatest risk to the market itself is not necessarily Chinese demand, but the behavior of exporters in the face of high price cycles.

For now, China continues to pay well.

The real question is how long it can sustain this if volumes continue to grow faster than the market's actual absorption capacity.

André Vargas
Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co
Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC
avargas@fruwer.com