André Vargas
January 2026: The Chinese Hass avocado market builds a recovery based on inherited shortages
China
The start of 2026 marked a shift in tone for the Chinese Hass avocado market. After a year-end pressured by the cherry season and internal oversupply, January solidified as a month of gradual price recovery, driven not by recent shipments, but by lower effective availability at the destination, a direct result of shipping decisions made weeks earlier.
Week 1: Continuation of the year-end rebound
The first week of the year maintained the recovery that began at the end of December, supported by healthier inventories at destination:
- 4 kg (cal. 20/22): RMB 80–100
- 10 kg (cal. 26/28): RMB 160–190
- Peru-China departures: 15 containers
The market showed reasonable turnover, with no pressure from old stocks, confirming that the price floor had been reached in December.
Week 2: Price stability with contained supply at destination
Despite a blank sailing being recorded at the port of Chancay, the effect was not immediately reflected in the Chinese market, since the available fruit corresponded to previous shipments:
- 4 kg: RMB 80–90
- 10 kg: RMB 170–190
- Peru-China departures: 1 container
Price stability confirmed that the market was still operating with a limited effective supply, inherited from lower shipments made in December.
Week 3: First real turning point of the month
This week saw a clear improvement in prices, a sign that the market was beginning to experience structural shortages at the destination:
- 4 kg: RMB 100–110
- 10 kg: RMB 200–220
- Peru-China departures: 31 containers
It's important to note that this surge wasn't caused by these sales, but rather by the limited availability that had accumulated in previous weeks. However, the volume shipped this week will be crucial for market equilibrium towards the end of February.
Week 4: Firm prices with future supply again restricted
A new blank sailing in Chancay drastically reduced shipments, reinforcing expectations of future shortages:
- 4 kg: RMB 110–120
- 10 kg: RMB 220–230
- Peru-China departures: 2 containers
The Chinese market, still operating with fruit shipped in December and early January, maintained the upward trend, especially for good and high quality fruit.
Week 5: Price consolidation ahead of the Chinese New Year January closed with prices that confirmed a solid recovery: • 4 kg: RMB 110–130
- 10 kg: RMB 240–250
This price level was explained by:
- low inventories at destination,
- lower cherry pressure compared to December,
- and a more active demand prior to the festivities.
The January sales are not yet fully reflected in the market, so these prices correspond to a scenario of limited inherited supply, not abundance.
Key structural points of the month
- January was a month of reaction, not of building supply.
The Chinese market in January reacted to the low shipments in December, not to current shipping decisions.
- Logistics once again worked in the market's favor
The blank sailings in Chancay did not affect January, but they are creating a scenario of:
- price support in early February, or
- Volatility if they coincide with subsequent concentrated arrivals. 3. The 10 kg format led the recovery
The 10 kg package showed greater resilience and traction, anticipating that the wholesale channel will become active again when supply is ordered.
Early reading for February (based on January outings)
- The 31 departures in week 3 could create pressure if they arrive in a concentrated manner after the Chinese New Year.
- Low sales in weeks 2 and 4 will act as a natural market buffer.
- February's balance will depend on:
or the rate of return of demand,
or the duration of the cherry season,
or the actual quality of the fruit that arrives.
Conclusion
January 2026 confirmed that the Chinese Hass avocado market is extremely sensitive to the timing of shipments, more so than to absolute volume. The observed recovery was not accidental, but rather the result of weeks of disciplined shipping.
The challenge for exporters is not to "take advantage" of the good prices in January, but to avoid disrupting the balance that these prices are indicating, especially in February, when January's shipments begin to be reflected at their destination.
Anyone who understands that today's decisions shape tomorrow's price will have a structural advantage in this market.
André Vargas
Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co
Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC
avargas@fruwer.com
