Peruvian avocado: July puts the season to the test

Peru 's avocado season is entering one of its most crucial phases. July could become the month with the highest volume of shipments for the entire Peruvian Hass avocado season, accounting for a significant portion of global shipments before supply naturally begins to decline towards the end of the export cycle.

The behavior observed in recent weeks, according toAlfredo Lira , is due to a strategy by producers to extend the harvest window. However, winter weather conditions could begin to accelerate the changing landscape in the fields.

"The volumes are concentrated because producers are trying to extend the harvest weeks, but the high winter temperatures will accelerate ripening on the tree ," Lira points out.

An export campaign entering its decisive stage

The concentration of fruit during July could make this period the peak of the Peruvian season. Although it is still too early to confirm a record number of shipments, there is a high probability that it will occur, driven precisely by the accumulation of late harvests during these weeks.

If this high-volume behavior continues, the international avocado market will begin to pay closer attention to the first signs of the end of the season and the speed at which the availability of fruit from this origin will decrease.

The global avocado market is looking ahead to August

Regarding the end of the season, Lira estimates that Peru's exit from the market should begin to occur in a generalized way during the second half of August.

However, the specialist clarifies that some producers could extend their presence for a few more weeks:

• Orchard planning: Fields specifically designed for later harvests will maintain residual shipments.
• Climate impact : August's behavior will allow us to assess the extent to which the acceleration of ripening due to heat modifies the usual pace of the campaign.
  
  

Europe will continue to be the market most exposed to the decline in volume.

In the event of a potential early reduction in avocado shipments from Peru, the European market would be the most affected due to its high dependence on Peruvian fruit for its supply during this time of year.

Chile comes in second place in terms of exposure, although with a considerably lower level of risk for its import programs, according to the assessment carried out by Lira.

Over the next few weeks, the progress of the harvest in key fields will confirm whether July solidifies as the month with the highest volume of the season and when Peruvian avocados will begin to decline on international shelves. Rather than setting an export record, this period will provide the first indications of the effective end of one of the most important seasons for the global avocado industry.