California's harvest is nearing its forecast as Mexico takes the lead in the fall

California's adjusted harvest fell 37% this week, but cumulative production reached 325.9 million pounds, just 4.1 million pounds shy of the 330 million pound forecast. Mexico now accounts for nearly 90% of weekly imported Hass avocado arrivals and is firmly setting the direction for the fall market.

Market overview

California almost met the season's forecast

California's adjusted harvest fell to 4.47 million pounds in the week ending September 6, a decrease of 2.65 million pounds, or 37%, from the previous week. Hass accounted for 4.21 million pounds, Lamb Hass added 121,000 pounds, and GEM production remained complete.
The key figure is the cumulative volume: California has harvested an adjusted 325.89 million pounds, equivalent to 98.8% of the California Avocado Commission's estimate. Only 4.11 million pounds are still short of the projection, indicating that the reported figure could exceed the forecast in the next weekly report if the harvest pace continues.

Handlers continue to move Californian fruit

AMRIC handlers shipped 9.47 million pounds of California fruit during the week, a 16% increase from the 8.16 million pounds shipped the previous week. Shipments exceeded the adjusted harvest by nearly 5 million pounds, reflecting that handlers are working with existing fruit in the system as field volume decreases.

Mexico controls the autumn supply transition

Mexican arrivals increased to 46.52 million pounds, a 3.5% rise from 44.94 million pounds the previous week. Peruvian arrivals, on the other hand, fell 10.2% to 5.33 million pounds. In total, imported Hass avocado arrivals reached 51.84 million pounds, with Mexico contributing 89.7% and Peru 10.3%.

The inventory report for September 8 confirms the same trend: Mexican inventory rose 3% compared to the previous week, to 31.35 million pounds, while Peruvian inventory fell 16.6% to 5.25 million pounds. Total imported inventory remained almost unchanged at 36.70 million pounds, as the increase from Mexico offset the decline from Peru.

What the figures mean for the market

California is entering the final stretch with less volume in the fields, but with steady movement through handlers' inventories. The remaining fruit still has a definite place in western retail programs, although availability will decrease rapidly as September progresses.

Mexico is now the market's main supplier. Its weekly arrivals and inventories have increased, and Mexican fruit accounts for more than 85% of reported imported inventory. Peru is clearly nearing the end of its season and no longer has enough market share to offset a significant change in Mexican shipments.

Conclusion

California is on track to meet or even exceed the 330 million pound estimate, but the weekly supply outlook has already shifted toward Mexico. The next test for the market will be whether the increasing Mexican arrivals remain aligned with demand as California and Peru exit their seasons. For California fruit, the remaining opportunity is an increasingly limited late window, rather than broad market coverage.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com