California avocado reaffirms its value at the close of the 2026 season

Market overview

The season in California continues its shutdown

California's 2026 avocado season is nearing its end, with weekly harvest volumes declining as the industry prepares for the September transition.

In the week ending August 30, California harvested approximately 6.9 million pounds , with an industry-adjusted figure of 7.1 million pounds . Handlers shipped just over 8.1 million pounds during the week. Year-to-date, adjusted production is at 321.4 million pounds , nearing the Commission's previously announced estimate of 330 million pounds .

Hass continues to account for the vast majority of California's production, with 6.6 million pounds harvested this week. Lamb Hass contributed 292,000 pounds , while GEM production is virtually complete.

Mexico takes control of the fall supply

As California's volume declines, Mexico is rapidly becoming the dominant supplier to the U.S. market. Mexican arrivals reached 44.9 million pounds in the week ending August 30, compared to 5.9 million pounds from Peru. Total imported Hass avocados totaled nearly 51 million pounds .

AMRIC's inventory report for Monday shows approximately 30.8 million pounds of Mexican fruit , down from 29.8 million pounds the previous week. Peruvian inventory, on the other hand, fell from 8.1 million to 6.9 million pounds . Total imported inventory remained relatively stable at 37.9 million pounds .

The figures clearly reflect the seasonal transition: California is saying goodbye, Peru is reducing its share, and Mexico is quickly taking over most of the supply available in the US heading into autumn.

California avocados prove their worth in retail

One of the most encouraging news items of the week came from the August Marketing Digest published by the California Avocado Commission (CAC).

According to the report, Californian avocados captured a larger share of the US market during the July 4th sales period. Total US avocado imports during the four weeks leading up to the holiday fell 6% compared to 2015, allowing Californian avocados to play a more significant role in meeting demand.

The result was remarkable: US consumers purchased a record 64.8 million avocados during the holiday week, an 8.6% increase over the previous year, generating $76.3 million in retail sales . California and western markets also saw record sales with 20.1 million units sold , while California GEM avocados contributed over half a million additional units to the category.

The performance confirms that California avocados can drive category growth when retailers give them shelf space and promotional support.

Strategy and projection

California will never be able to compete with Mexico in annual volume. What it does offer is a premium, locally grown product within a defined marketing window. The results from July 4th demonstrate that when California fruit receives distribution, display, and promotional support, consumers respond.

CAC also reported that its retail and influencer programs with chains such as Erewhon, Sprouts and Stater Bros. reached approximately 880,000 consumers , with an average engagement rate of 4% .

As we approach the end of the 2026 season, these results serve as a valuable reminder: California's long-term opportunity lies not in matching imported volume, but in protecting a recognizable seasonal window and giving retailers a compelling reason to highlight premium California-grown avocados when they are available.

Looking ahead

The industry's supply will continue its accelerated transition throughout September. California's volume will continue to decline, Peru will further reduce its share, and Mexico will increasingly dictate overall market conditions. The key question in the coming weeks will be whether Mexican shipments can keep pace with demand as inventories grow and the new crop gains momentum.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com