Mexico increases its volume and California advances in the final weeks of the 2026 harvest

California's 2026 avocado season is entering its final stretch, but the latest data from AMRIC shows that the domestic harvest is still moving significant volumes, while imported supply — especially from Mexico — is expanding rapidly.

California still exceeds 8 million pounds per week

In the week ending August 23, California handlers reported 8.83 million pounds harvested and 8.48 million pounds shipped . Of that total, Hass accounted for 8.23 million pounds harvested and 7.50 million pounds shipped . So far this season, the cumulative harvest is 305.1 million pounds , with 288.5 million pounds shipped by AMRIC handlers. Adjusted for industry levels, the total is estimated at 314.3 million pounds harvested and 294.4 million pounds shipped .

The figures confirm that California has already passed its peak production, but the season is not yet over. As of August 21, the inventory reported by AMRIC was 14.8 million pounds , leaving growers and handlers with significant fruit to sell as the market transitions into fall.

Mexico accelerates its supply

The most relevant data point of the week is the volume of Mexican fruit entering the market. Mexico registered 49.4 million pounds of arrivals in the week ending August 23, compared to 21.2 million pounds shipped by AMRIC handlers. At the same time, Mexican inventory reached 28.1 million pounds as of August 21, a 20% increase over the previous week.

The combination of strong arrivals and larger inventories indicates that Mexican supply is growing much faster than Californian volume is declining. Mexico's current inventory alone is almost double that of California.

Peru continues its decline

Peru remains a significant supplier for late summer, with 7.43 million pounds arriving and 5.63 million pounds shipped during the week. However, its inventory fell from 11.76 million pounds the previous week to 9.58 million pounds as of August 21, a decrease of 18.6%. Peru is clearly nearing the end of its season, while Mexico is consolidating its position as the dominant imported source.

Well-stocked retail sizes

The inventory also shows ample availability in key retail sizes. The No. 1 conventional Mexican inventory included approximately 355,000 25-pound boxes of size 48 and 249,000 boxes of size 60. In California, the No. 1 conventional Hass inventory totaled 135,000 boxes of size 48 and 104,000 of size 60. With California, Mexico, and Peru all in the market at the same time, buyers should continue to find good availability during the late summer transition.

Mexican avocados in the national spotlight

Concerns surrounding avocados imported from Mexico also received national attention this week. An opinion piece on Fox News, authored by Jayme Franklin, CEO of The Conservateur , highlighted repeated suspensions of USDA inspections in Mexico, allegations of cartel extortion of producers in Michoacán, interceptions of pests that could threaten the Californian industry, and the impact of the growing Mexican volume on U.S. farmers.

For California growers, the immediate problem is reflected in the numbers: they are still harvesting and shipping significant volumes, but they are doing so in the face of a rapidly expanding Mexican supply base. With nearly 50 million pounds of Mexican arrivals in a single week and inventories growing by more than 20%, keeping the remaining harvest moving will be crucial as the industry moves into September.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com