A summer in retreat and an avocado market in transition

Hass Avocado Market in Canada During the Summer (June, July and August 2026)

The Canadian Hass avocado market during June, July, and August 2026 was characterized by solid demand, abundant supply led by Mexico and complemented by Peru, comfortable inventories, and prices below those observed in 2025. The East Coast continued to be the main consumption hub, while the West Coast leveraged logistical advantages to maintain efficient distribution. The arrival of new visitors to the country for the FIFA World Cup also contributed to increased consumption during the summer period.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, the market maintains a positive outlook, although it faces challenges related to global oversupply, climate volatility, and pressure on commercial margins.

1. Demand

Canadian demand for Hass avocados remained robust throughout the summer of 2026. June through August corresponds to the period of highest seasonal consumption due to:

• Major sporting events attracting tourists and consequently increasing consumption.
• Increased family gatherings and outdoor events.
• Higher consumption of guacamole and fresh products.
• Strong participation from the foodservice sector.
• Healthy-eating trends and diets rich in healthy fats.

Canada continues to be one of the fastest-growing per-capita avocado markets in North America and relies almost entirely on imports to meet domestic demand.

2. Supply

Supply during the summer of 2026 was abundant due to the overlap of several origins:

• Mexico: Continued to be the main supplier to the Canadian market, accounting for approximately 93% of total annual imported volume. Michoacán and Jalisco were the main exporting states.
• Peru: Entered the market strongly during June-August, coinciding with the peak of the Peruvian export season. The 2026 Peruvian campaign showed estimated growth of 6-7% compared with 2025.
• Colombia: Maintained a limited presence as a complementary supplier, particularly for specific retail programs involving fruit packed in mesh bags.
• Other origins of green-skinned avocados: Limited participation from the Dominican Republic and Brazil.
  
  

3. Import Volumes

Market estimates indicate:

Estimated combined volume: 28 to 30 million kg during the June-August quarter.

These figures are consistent with an annual market exceeding 110 million kg and continue the record growth trend observed in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

4. Prices

Overall Performance

Prices declined compared with the summer of 2025 due to:

• Higher Mexican production.
• Production recovery in Jalisco.
• Increased Peruvian exports.
• Broad availability of medium and large sizes.

FOB/Wholesale Price Trend in Canada

Wholesale markets in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver recorded more competitive retail promotions compared with 2025 due to the greater flow of available fruit.

Current wholesale market selling prices – Week 35, Toronto – Mexican origin

• S36 × 11.3 kg: USD 43 / 45
• S48 × 11.3 kg: USD 37 / 38
• S16 × 4.0 kg: USD 13.50 / 14.00
• S60 × 11.3 kg: USD 29 / 30
• S20 × 4.0 kg: USD 12.00
• S70 × 11.3 kg: USD 26 / 27
  
  

5. Stocks and Inventories

Inventories during July were above the historical average, with no major signs of supply shortages, due to:

• The simultaneous arrival of Mexican and Peruvian fruit.
• More aggressive promotional programs by supermarkets.
• Increased storage capacity among domestic importers.
  
  

6. Main Origins in the Canadian Market During the Summer Season

7. East Coast vs. West Coast

East Coast (Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa)

Positive Factors

• Higher population concentration, resulting in greater consumption concentration.
• Strong retail turnover.
• Significant growth in the foodservice channel.

Pressure Factors

• Logistics costs from Mexico.
• Rising labor costs.
• Competition among national retail chains.

West Coast (Vancouver and British Columbia)

Positive Factors

• Excellent access to Mexican fruit.
• Shorter transit times.
• Growing avocado-consuming communities.

Pressure Factors

• Greater competition from other products imported through the Pacific.
• Port costs and occasional logistics congestion.
  
  

8. Outlook for Q4 2026

Between September and December, the following trends are expected:

• Mexico will once again dominate the supply.
• Peru will complete its export volumes.
• Inventories will decline.
• Prices will remain relatively stable compared with July-August.
  
  

Sustained Consumption Growth in 2026

Annual consumption growth of between 2% and 4% is projected for 2026, reflecting the maturity and stability of the Canadian market.