Sharp weekly drop in China: volumes down 53% and sizes 18–24 lose 13% of their value

The Chinese market experienced a sharp contraction in week 49, registering a 53% drop in avocado arrivals. In total, only 27 containers entered the country, all from Chile, reflecting the marked intermittency in shipments from Peru, whose cargoes did not arrive this week after alternating between presence and absence in recent periods.

Despite the sharp weekly decline, the year-on-year comparison paints a different picture: arrivals are 23% higher than the volume recorded during the same period last year. However, this difference does not translate into a substantial change for the market, given that absolute volumes remain relatively small.

Regarding prices, China saw significant declines. Sizes between 18 and 24 registered a drop of nearly 13%, falling below the values reached in previous years for this same period. The combination of lower weekly supply and declining prices keeps the market in a fragile position, with mixed signals regarding actual demand and the capacity for repositioning in the short term.

Adding to this scenario is the perspective of André Vargas from Colombia, who warns that the evolution of the Chinese market toward the end of the year will depend largely on the performance of Chilean supply and, especially, on Peru's ability to re-enter the market with high-standard fruit at the right time. His analysis reinforces the idea that China remains a market highly sensitive to timing and the consistency of the participating origins.

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