European market: record volumes, price pressure and short-term outlook

Over the past three weeks, the European Hass avocado market has reached a turning point: record volumes and relatively low prices. According to Avobook, imports to Europe exceeded 21,500 containers in the first 23 weeks of 2026, more than 3,000 containers higher than the same period in 2025. This increase resulted in a very strong supply. The market is currently described as “stable” in both volume and price, with a downward trend in prices driven by Peru's dominance.

Peru is clearly setting the pace in recent weeks, both in terms of market share and price formation. Larger sizes are widely available in Europe, which is putting downward pressure on their prices, while smaller sizes remain relatively scarce and, therefore, maintain or slightly improve their values. From an importer's perspective, this means a market where it's possible to buy larger sizes at attractive prices, but inventory management becomes crucial to prevent a cheap purchase from ending up as slow-moving stock.

Looking ahead to the next three weeks, I expect this trend to continue, with a slightly bearish environment, especially for larger sizes. It's worth noting that strong volumes from Peru and high cold storage inventories will likely keep prices under pressure throughout July and August. Large sizes could continue to decline if retailers don't accelerate promotions or increase shelf space for avocados. Medium sizes should remain relatively stable: they are preferred by most retailers, so well-planned promotions can clear stock without significant price changes. Small sizes, in my opinion, have the best prospects for maintaining or even slightly improving their prices, thanks to limited supply and consistent demand from the premium segment.

Globally, it's important to note that avocado production is growing faster than consumption. CIRAD estimates that exportable avocado production is increasing by around 275,000 tons per year, while demand is growing by about 175,000 tons. This gap will sooner or later translate into structurally lower prices and greater sensitivity to seasonal supply peaks. In Europe, we are already seeing the first signs: record import volumes, slower growth in more mature markets, and strong price pressure from retailers.

From a supply perspective, the next three weeks offer an opportunity to work with short-term contracts and a flexible mix of origins and sizes: taking advantage of the low prices of larger sizes without neglecting the premium potential of smaller sizes. The key will be the right combination of promotions, quality of ripening, and transparent communication of value, from origin and sustainability to consistent consumer quality. In a volume-saturated market, the difference between average and outstanding performance will come from the ability to transform inexpensive raw materials into a product that consumers choose time and again on the shelf.

Gabriel Katkovčin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en