Hass avocados in Europe: high volumes and cautious price outlook

The last three weeks (18–20/2026) confirm that the European market is experiencing peak volume for the South American season, with shipments increasing sharply and a clear dominance from Peru. According to weekly data, Europe received 1,127 shipments in week 19 (+22% year-on-year) and 1,219 in week 20, representing an 8% increase compared to the previous week and a 22% year-on-year increase.

Peru already accounted for 59% of the market in week 19 and around 68% in week 20, while Brazil, Kenya, and South Africa significantly strengthened their positions. Compared to the winter weeks of 2025, when volumes hovered between 550 and 700 containers per week (e.g., 576 in week 12, 559–589 in week 50), the current flow is more than double. This is the key factor shaping price sentiment.

The main drivers of prices today are:

1. High weekly imports and increased inventories.
2. Strong concentration in a single origin (Peru).
3. Mix of sizes (the medium ones hold prices better).
4. Logistics and quality factors.

Price outlook for the next three weeks

With over 1,200 weekly shipments and the Peruvian season still expanding, the market is experiencing a period of high supply. Given these volumes and moderate spring demand, prices are expected to remain stable or show a slight downward trend for standard Hass sizes 16–18–20.

The most likely scenario is that prices will remain at the lower end of the normal range, around €7–9 per 4 kg box for 18–20 Hass Class I at major import ports. Downward pressure will be more evident in larger sizes (12–14), while an increase in prices for smaller sizes (22–24) is quite likely.

In this context, it is crucial to constantly monitor weekly data and react quickly to any changes.

In summary, Europe is currently experiencing its seasonal peak in May: supply is high and concentrated, and demand is growing, but not enough to sustain rising prices. A cautious yet realistic outlook suggests mostly stable prices or a slight downward trend over the next three weeks.

Gabriel Katkovčin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en