Gabriel Katkovčin
Hass in Europe: Peru is falling behind, but there is still no cause for alarm
Holland
In my opinion, the European Hass avocado market is entering one of the most interesting phases of the season. Peru, which was clearly the dominant supplier during the summer, is now beginning to decline more significantly, as the market gradually prepares for a transition to other origins.
Recent overview
A clear change has been observed over the last three weeks. According to the most recent supply data for the EU and UK, Hass arrivals reached approximately 874 containers in week 33 , followed by 917 in week 34 and around 843 in week 35. After a brief uptick, a significant drop in supply has now been recorded.
Even more relevant is the situation in Peru. According to the same data, Peruvian Hass avocado supplies decreased from 727 containers in week 34 to 661 in week 35. Although Peru remains the dominant source in Europe, it is no longer driving growth. On the contrary, its volumes are expected to continue declining in the coming weeks.
New origins are gaining ground
Other countries are gradually trying to fill the gap. Kenya and Tanzania are gaining prominence, while Colombia is beginning to play a more visible role, with projected exports of 35–40 containers per week in the coming weeks. Chile is also starting to gradually enter the market.
However, it is unlikely that these new sources will immediately and fully offset the decline in Peru. Therefore, the European market is expected to strengthen gradually in the coming weeks.
Key factor: caliber distribution
There is no general shortage of Hass avocados, but rather selective tension in certain sizes. Attention should be focused on calibers 16–24 , where the balance between supply and demand could become tighter than in the larger sizes.
The first signs were already seen in Rotterdam : in week 33, the price of 18-gauge wire rose approximately 17% , while 24-gauge wire increased by 6% . This reflects that the market is beginning to react to the drop in Peruvian volumes by size category, rather than with a generalized increase.
Healthy demand
On the demand side, the outlook remains positive. Following the summer holidays, European retail trade is returning to more normal patterns, while underlying demand for Hass avocados remains strong. The European avocado market continues to grow in the long term and can absorb significant volumes as long as supply is not concentrated in overly short periods.
Perspective
The outlook for the next three weeks is moderately bullish. A sharp price surge is not expected, but rather a gradual strengthening of the market. Overall, Hass prices could increase between 3–8% , with more pronounced movements in sizes 16–24 .
The main risks to this scenario would be a faster-than-expected acceleration in shipments from Colombia and Chile , or a slower decline in Peruvian volumes. Conversely, if Peru continues to fall as projected and new sources fail to immediately compensate, Hass prices would still have room to rise in September.
Gabriel Katkovčin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en
