In Europe, stable volumes and favorable prospects

Over the past three weeks, the European Hass avocado market has seen relatively stable but high volumes, with weekly arrivals of between 950 and 1,000 containers, driven primarily by shipments from Peru. For the next three weeks, the outlook points to a slightly sluggish or balanced market, with pressure on larger sizes and a relatively firmer position for smaller sizes.

Last three weeks: the effect of the Peruvian wave

Europe is currently experiencing its peak summer season. During this period, total Hass avocado arrivals have hovered just below 1,000 containers per week, a level that historically puts downward pressure on prices, particularly for larger sizes.

During these three weeks, Peru has accounted for the majority of the supply. According to the data, it represents between 80% and 90% of European imports. Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa, meanwhile, remain below 100 containers per week each.

As a result, the market isn't saturated with record-breaking volumes, but it is in a zone where larger sizes face greater price pressure, while smaller sizes remain relatively stable. This dynamic aligns with recent months: record arrivals that have driven down prices for larger sizes and supported those for smaller ones.

At the same time, European demand remains structurally strong. WAO estimates that avocado consumption in the EU will grow by 16% by 2025, and that consumers are buying more frequently. This reduces the risk of a sharp price drop, even with high volumes.

Price outlook for the next three weeks

The baseline scenario for the next three weeks combines stability with a slight downward trend. This will depend on three key variables: the pace of shipments from Peru, potential logistical disruptions, and the quality and size of the incoming containers.

If arrivals remain between 950 and 1,000 containers per week, pressure is likely to continue on the larger gauges —14, 16 and even 18— while the smaller ones could remain stable or even strengthen somewhat, depending on the exact mix of shipments.

In this context, a significant price increase would require a sudden drop in Peruvian supply due to weather, logistics or quality problems, or ship delays that temporarily reduce availability in major European ports.

Conversely, if Peru accelerates its shipments and other origins do not reduce them, the spot market could weaken in the short term, especially in the Netherlands and markets directly linked to Rotterdam. Retail programs would mitigate some of the volatility, but not all of it.

Gabriel Katkovčin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en