Europe: Hass avocado price depends on Peru's pace

After several weeks of gradually tightening supply, the European Hass avocado market is entering a phase where price will depend primarily on the pace of arrivals and the market's capacity to absorb the increasing volumes from Peru and the Southern Hemisphere. By early 2026, Europe had already demonstrated its ability to handle larger volumes without a significant price collapse, although pressure on smaller sizes becomes evident when levels approach 1,000 containers per week.

The last 3 weeks 

Over the past three weeks, the European market likely moved within a range of approximately 900 to 1,050 containers per week. This estimate is based on publicly available data and secondary reports, which indicate that Europe recorded 794 shipments in week 8 and 956 in week 11, while during the same period last year, the market surpassed 1,000 containers per week shortly thereafter.

The most significant change has been the growing participation of Peru. The country now accelerates its exports at the start of the season, and a large portion of its volume is destined directly for Europe, while the Spanish season is losing momentum and South Africa is gradually increasing its supply. The result is a market with sufficient supply, but not yet completely saturated across all sizes simultaneously.

From a price perspective, there are no signs of a drastic drop yet, but the pressure on smaller sizes is already visible, especially when higher volumes coincide with average quality. Larger sizes, which are more commercially attractive, are holding up better, particularly if the fruit has good dry matter content and reliable ripening.

Factors that will move the price

In the coming weeks, four factors will be crucial: the number of containers arriving, the size distribution, the internal quality, and competition from other summer fruit categories. If Europe receives 1,000 or more containers per week for several consecutive weeks, it is likely to increase pressure on spot prices.

Equally important will be whether the United States can continue to absorb the large volumes from Latin America. If it does, Europe will avoid some of that surplus; if not, the pressure on Rotterdam and other hubs will intensify. It's also worth considering that in Central Europe, avocados remain more price-sensitive than in Western Europe, especially with the influx of melons and stone fruit.

Price outlook for the next 3 weeks

The base scenario is slightly bearish. Hass avocado prices in Europe are expected to decline slightly over the next three weeks, but not uniformly or drastically. The greatest downward pressure should be concentrated on sizes 24+ to 30, while sizes 16–22 should remain more stable.

If Peru ramps up production volumes faster than the market anticipates, and South Africa and other African origins get off to a smooth start, the decline could be more pronounced. Conversely, if logistical delays occur or more volume is diverted to the US, prices for quality fruit could stabilize at current levels.

At this point, the most sensible approach is to distinguish between "cheap" fruit and fruit that actually generates minimal losses. Over the next three weeks, imports will likely focus less on the nominal number of containers and more on how much of that supply meets the quality standards that European retailers are still willing to pay for.

Gabriel Katkovčin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en