In the second half of March, the European Hass avocado market enters a phase of abundant supply, strong demand, and increasing differences in size and origin. From my perspective, the market is in a comfortable zone: it's not overheated, but neither is it facing a surplus crisis.

What does the European market currently look like?
A very significant volume of shipments is arriving in Europe, clearly higher than last year. In practice, this is reflected in the major ports: the variety of origins and qualities is broad, and buyers can afford to be more selective. The traditional players—Israel, Spain, Peru, and Colombia—continue to dominate, and different regions of Europe rely on varying combinations of these origins.
Spain and Israel still have a significant presence, especially during the winter-spring window, but it's already clear that Peru and Colombia are entering the market more aggressively. At the same time, smaller but still relevant volumes from Morocco, Chile, Kenya, and Mexico round out the overall supply picture.

Prices and sizes: marked difference between North and South
Prices clearly show that the market is far from uniform.
In Northern Europe (Rotterdam and northern ports), small Hass calibers are under moderate pressure, although price corrections are gradual.
Larger, higher-quality sizes remain relatively strong, with buyers willing to pay for quality, especially in retail programs.
In contrast, in Spain and southern Europe the pressure on smaller calibers is much more pronounced. Where local production overlaps with imports, prices for smaller calibers have fallen more significantly than those for larger calibers.
The result is a fragmented market: large sizes (14–20) show a relatively healthy balance between supply and demand, while small sizes in certain destinations are being displaced more aggressively, often at the expense of margin.

Who will set the pace: Peru and Colombia on the offensive
Peru is entering the season with confidence: production is up, export volumes in the first weeks of the year are noticeably higher than last season, and Europe is clearly one of the key destinations. I see Peru trying to avoid the mistakes of previous seasons: better timing, a greater focus on early quality, and an effort to avoid flooding the market with cheap fruit from the start.

Colombia is another player that is strengthening year after year. Markets such as the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom are increasingly absorbing volumes of Colombian Hass avocados. From the perspective of European buyers, Colombia is attractive because it can supply avocados for much of the year and react flexibly to peak demand.

Spain and Israel still maintain their seasonal window, but it's clear that as the season progresses, they will have to yield to increasing pressure from Peru and Colombia. In the next 2–3 weeks, however, they will remain important, especially for larger sizes and premium programs.

Demand: the market “knows” and consumes avocado
European consumers now see Hass avocados as a staple in their shopping basket. Consumption remains at record levels and, in many countries, continues to grow—though no longer at the explosive pace of a few years ago. Much of the demand now comes from discount chains and retail programs that generate volume through regular promotions and consistent product listings.

In practice I observe that:

• Demand is strong, but retailers are more cautious after periods of oversupply.
• Promotions are planned more carefully to avoid flooding the market with cheap fruit.
• Buyers are much stricter about quality and specifications: dry matter, internal quality, uniformity of sizes.

All of this benefits origins that can maintain a consistent level of quality and supply.

Outlook for the next 2–3 weeks
In summary, my specific expectations are:

• Supply: Europe will be very well supplied with Hass avocados, with no signs of physical shortages. Increasing volumes from Peru and a stable presence from Colombia will ensure a steady flow of fruit.
• Calibers: Smaller calibers will remain under pressure, especially in southern countries where local and imported supply overlap. Larger calibers should maintain relatively firm price levels.
• Prices: I don't expect extreme fluctuations, rather stability in a medium range, with slight downward pressure in small calibers and good resistance in large calibers.
• Demand: Demand should remain strong, neutral to slightly positive, without major fluctuations. The key will be how the market manages to distribute larger volumes over time and across countries.

For a buyer, this means: working more aggressively with larger gauges (which, with the right quality, can also be attractive for promotions), selectively purchasing smaller gauges, and not being afraid to negotiate on price and terms. Currently, the market is more of a "buyer's market" than a seller's market, but only for certain gauges and specifications.

Gabriel Katkovcin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en