The supply of avocados in Europe will likely remain tight in the coming month, so there isn't much room for a major price drop until larger volumes arrive from Peru, probably starting in the second half of March.

Supply outlook: February / early March

In winter, Europe relies primarily on Israel, Spain, Colombia, Morocco, and Chile, and this mix is expected to remain similar in weeks 5-7. Spain and Israel are slowly increasing volumes, but recent weather issues mean that overall availability will not be very high. Colombia's 2026 production appears weaker than initially anticipated, and exporters note that after a brief peak, their shipments to Europe will decline, although Europe remains an important and profitable market for them. Chile is winding down its season and will ship less to Europe in February, partly because some volumes are being redirected to Latin America and Asia. Morocco is strengthening its position in the EU, particularly in markets like Germany, and will therefore be an important supplier in the coming weeks, but it will not fully compensate for the lower volumes from Chile and Spain.

Peru: a key factor for a change in trend

Market reports show that traders are heavily focused on potential harvest delays in Peru, meaning they aren't planning on large Peruvian volumes as early as February. In 2025, Peru significantly increased production and exports, leading to oversupply and a price war in Europe, so producers are now more cautious about the timing and distribution of shipments. Europe remains the primary destination for Peruvian Hass avocados, and total exports are expected to grow again, but the greatest risk of oversupply is in March-April, when coastal regions reach peak production.

Prices, sizes and demand

Recent data shows that large and medium sizes have become slightly cheaper, while smaller sizes like 30/32 have become noticeably more expensive, narrowing the usual price gap between small and large fruit. When small sizes are scarce in Europe, price differences between sizes often diminish, and with limited supply from Spain and Israel, this primarily favors 30/32; this situation may continue for the next two to three weeks.

Overall, prices in Europe are currently firm, and although Spain and Morocco are expected to ship more fruit in the next 15 days, this is not expected to cause a significant price drop. Until heavier volumes arrive from Peru, prices are likely to move sideways or remain relatively firm, particularly for good-quality Hass avocados in sizes 20-24 and the smaller 30-32.

Operational outlook for next month

Over the next four weeks, arrivals to Europe are expected to remain around 600-650 shipments per week, with minor fluctuations and more noticeable growth once Peru increases its exports in March. Prices for sizes 20-24 and 30/32 should remain firm, while larger sizes 16-18 may have slightly more room to fall if Spain and Morocco increase their volumes.

Market risks

The main risks to the market are: if the Peruvian harvest and logistics do not face delays and larger volumes arrive as early as the end of February, prices could weaken more quickly, especially for sizes 20-24; on the other hand, more weather problems in Spain, Israel or Morocco, or new logistical disruptions, could push prices even higher for a short period.

For the February buying strategy, this means not expecting a big price drop, but working with tactical cash purchases when good deals are seen (mainly from Spain, Morocco, Israel and Colombia), avoiding overbuying expensive small sizes 30/32, and closely following any signs about the real start of larger Peruvian shipments to Europe.

EU Spot Market Overview – Weeks 6/7

– Colombia, Dominican Republic, Peru: around €12.50-14.00/4 kg on the spot market, depending on size and quality.

– Israel, Morocco, Chile, Spain: mainly program volumes, with limited fruit available on the open spot market.

Gabriel Katkovcin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en