Avocado exports to China in August: prices rise due to shortage

August 2026 represented a significant shift in the behavior of the Chinese Hass avocado market. After several months characterized by oversupply, price pressure, and strong differentiation between qualities, the market entered a completely different phase: fruit availability declined considerably and prices reacted sharply.

During the first weeks of the month, markets operated with minimal inventories, including periods when there were virtually no containers available for sale. This shortage allowed 4 kg cartons to return to levels of up to RMB 140–150, while 10 kg formats once again reached the RMB 300 threshold.

However, August also delivered an important warning. As prices increased, sales velocity began to slow. The market demonstrated that it can pay high prices when supply is scarce, but also that there is a point beyond which buyers begin to resist.

Adding to this is a new factor that will need to be closely monitored throughout September: the beginning of China's domestic avocado production season.

Week 32: A Market with Virtually No Inventory Changes the Price Dynamics

Week 32 clearly marked the beginning of a new phase.

Markets were practically empty, with only a few containers available. In this scenario, 4 kg cartons were traded within a broad range of RMB 50 to RMB 140, while 10 kg cartons reached levels of up to RMB 280.

The wide range observed for 4 kg cartons reflects a market with limited depth and restricted supply, where the specific conditions of each lot carried much greater weight in negotiations.

The main signal of the week was clear: after months in which the challenge had been how to absorb excess product, China was beginning to face the opposite scenario.

Peru shipped 35 containers to China. Naturally, these shipments did not explain the prices observed in Week 32, as their commercial impact would be seen approximately three to four weeks later.

Week 33: Rapid Sales and a Complete Lack of Inventory

The shortage became even more evident during Week 33.

4 kg cartons sold between RMB 100 and RMB 140, while 10 kg cartons reached levels of RMB 280 to RMB 300.

The difference compared with previous weeks was not only reflected in prices. Sales velocity also changed significantly.

Sales remained rapid and, over the weekend, virtually no containers were left available because all the product had been sold.

This was probably the most relevant data point of August.

A high price can be the result of speculation, but a high price accompanied by inventories that are rapidly depleted represents a much stronger commercial signal.

During this week, 58 containers were shipped from Peru.

Week 34: Prices Reach the Ceiling and Demand Begins to React

Week 34 pushed prices even higher.

4 kg cartons reached levels of RMB 100 to RMB 150, while 10 kg formats sold for as much as RMB 300.

But it was precisely during this week that the first sign of resistance emerged. The price increase caused sales momentum to slow.

This behavior is particularly relevant because it shows that the market does not have unlimited capacity to absorb price increases. During the previous week, fruit was disappearing rapidly. In Week 34, even with relatively tight availability, buyers began to show greater caution.

From an economic perspective, August began to reveal the elasticity of Chinese demand: scarcity can push prices higher, but each additional increase progressively reduces buyers' willingness to purchase.

Shipments from Peru totaled 31 containers.

Week 35: First Correction and Focus Shifts to the Chinese Crop

During Week 35, a moderate correction began.

4 kg cartons declined to a range of RMB 80 to RMB 120, while 10 kg cartons were traded between RMB 240 and RMB 300.

Overall market activity remained slow, confirming that the levels reached during the previous weeks had reduced the pace of purchasing.

However, China's domestic avocado production season was about to begin in September, introducing a new variable into the supply balance.

Peru shipped 28 containers to China.

August Once Again Demonstrates the Power of Scarcity

If May demonstrated how sharply China can decline when it receives excessive volumes, August showed the exact opposite phenomenon.

With few containers available, negotiating power quickly shifted from buyers to sellers.

4 kg cartons recovered from the RMB 50–80 levels observed during much of July to reach RMB 150, while the 10 kg format once again touched RMB 300.

However, there is an important distinction between interpreting these levels as a structural recovery in demand and understanding them as a reaction to a lack of supply.

The August data points primarily toward the latter.

The market did not necessarily begin consuming significantly more avocados. It simply had much less fruit available to satisfy existing demand.

This distinction is fundamental for any exporter deciding on a shipment program.

Price Once Again Reveals Its Limit

The evolution between Weeks 33 and 35 offers a particularly useful perspective.

In Week 33, with 4 kg cartons at RMB 100–140 and 10 kg cartons at RMB 280–300, fruit sold rapidly until it had virtually disappeared from the markets.

One week later, the 4 kg format reached RMB 150 and sales began to slow.

In other words, within just a few days, the market moved from scarcity with strong turnover to scarcity accompanied by buyer resistance.

This demonstrates that evaluating market health requires more than simply looking at the price of a carton. It is also necessary to consider how quickly that carton is selling at that price.

A market at RMB 130 with rapid sales may be commercially healthier than one at RMB 150 where inventory begins to accumulate.

The 10 kg Format Once Again Demonstrates Its Strength

August also reinforced a trend that has been repeated throughout much of the season.

The 10 kg format once again demonstrated a strong ability to capture value, reaching RMB 280–300 during the strongest weeks.

This occurred after the same format had fallen to extremely low levels during the oversupply period in May.

The magnitude of this variation demonstrates the extent to which the Chinese Hass avocado market continues to depend on the immediate balance between inventory and availability.

When there is excess product, corrections can be aggressive. When supply disappears, the recovery can be equally rapid.

September Could Once Again Change the Market Structure

The beginning of the Chinese harvest could alter the balance that supported August's high prices.

The magnitude of the impact will depend on several factors: available volume, the quality of locally produced fruit, harvest speed, and the market's capacity to absorb the additional supply.

Conceptually, however, the risk is clear.

August was favorable because there was scarcity. If September combines higher international arrivals with the entry of locally produced fruit, that condition could disappear quickly.

This does not necessarily mean that prices must collapse. It means that the RMB 140–150 levels observed during August should not automatically be assumed to represent the market's new structural benchmark.

Conclusion: August Rewarded Those Who Arrived When Fruit Was Scarce

August 2026 was one of the most interesting months of the season because it once again demonstrated the Chinese market's ability to recover when supply declines.

4 kg cartons reached as high as RMB 150, while 10 kg cartons returned to levels close to RMB 300. At certain points, there was virtually no inventory available.

But the same month also delivered a signal that should temper optimism: when prices rose too far, sales began to lose momentum.

For exporters, the conclusion is particularly relevant. The objective should not be to chase the highest price appearing in China today, but rather to anticipate what supply conditions their fruit will encounter several weeks after shipment.

August rewarded scarcity. September will have to demonstrate whether that balance can be maintained in the face of new arrivals and the beginning of China's domestic production.

In a market as sensitive as China, today's price helps explain the present; the volume in transit is what helps anticipate the future.

André Vargas
Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co
Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC
avargas@fruwer.com