The past few weeks have been marked by a series of missed market forecasts, both in terms of price and volume. This situation is proving challenging for all market participants. Such a trend is highly unusual for this time of year.

The large volume of shipments from Peru, arriving even at the end of its season, has significantly influenced market dynamics. Unfortunately, there wasn't enough time for demand to temporarily exceed supply, which could have considerably alleviated the current situation.

On the other hand, all producing countries that follow Peru's season (Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Chile) have reported above-average production and availability. This has resulted in supply exceeding demand once again in specific markets. In particular, prices for Chilean produce have reached historically low levels.

The Israeli season then began, followed shortly after by Morocco, which experienced a slight delay attributed either to market prices or actual dry matter issues. Spain also remains a factor and is expected to have an above-average production season this year.

According to producers, prices may stabilize, at least for larger sizes such as 14/16 and possibly 18, provided conditions remain favorable. However, smaller sizes, ranging from 20 to 24, are expected to pose a challenge, possibly extending into the first quarter of 2026.

Overall, the market outlook is not entirely positive, primarily due to stagnant sales. Although the volume of containers entering Europe remains within normal ranges, retail channels are unable to absorb this supply efficiently, with promotions becoming smaller and less frequent.

We expect that consumers' New Year's resolutions to live healthier lives will boost avocado consumption and that we will see an improvement as early as the first quarter.

Looking ahead, the Peruvian season is about to begin, and early indications suggest a season in which product shortages will not be an issue for market players. This continued abundance in the countries of origin, combined with moderate demand, will likely maintain the current delicate balance between supply and demand, influencing price pressures and sales volumes in the short term.

In summary, market conditions remain volatile, with significant supply pressures and price fluctuations due to consecutive harvests from major producers. Market participants should closely monitor developments, particularly regarding retail demand and promotional activity, as these will be key drivers of how the supply situation unfolds in the coming months. Strategic planning and agile response to these dynamics will be essential to optimize results in this complex market environment.

Gabriel Katkovcin
Sourcing manager
TITBIT sro
katkovcin@titbit.cz
www.titbit.cz/en