Avocado market after May 5: prices remain low and fruit volume remains high
Prices for a 25-pound box remain at almost half of 2025 levels, and the industry anticipates weeks of continued high supply of avocados from Mexico, California, and Peru.
In the U.S. avocado market, the period after Cinco de Mayo typically marks the beginning of a new sales phase within each season. Consumption linked to Mexican celebrations generates one of the most dynamic periods of the year, and once that peak has passed , the market begins to readjust to accommodate new origins and seasonal changes.
But this time the scenario is different. Or, at least, much more aggressive for prices, which have shown their lowest levels in many years.
While in 2025 the market was still operating with high values and a relatively more controlled supply, in 2026 the feeling is different: an abundance of fruit, commercial pressure and a market that absorbs all available volume based on intense promotions in retail .
Avocado prices in the US fall to levels well below 2025
Tomás de la Cuadra, market analyst at Avobook, explains that the difference compared to last year is evident from the beginning of the season.
“The most striking thing when comparing 2025 and 2026 is the price difference. In 2025, the average price per 25-pound box started at US$67 in week 13 and steadily declined until closing at US$57 in week 20. In 2026, that same price range is completely different: between US$26 and US$32, reflecting a market with greater available supply and significantly higher price pressure than the previous year,” he explains.
The difference is significant. The US market is operating at prices practically half of those recorded a year ago during the same period. And this is happening even before Peru has fully launched its season.
Mexico maintains high volumes and California is already establishing itself in the market
Mexico, which is gradually transitioning to lower volumes over the coming months, still maintains a significant presence in the United States. In addition, California has emerged as a stable player in the weekly offerings, although with a somewhat shorter season than last year.
The result is a well-supplied market, but with no clear evidence of price recovery.
According to Avobook data, for several weeks during this period the total volume exceeded 2,000 containers per week, a level that helps explain the pressure currently facing prices.
For Tomás De la Cuadra, the phenomenon responds precisely to that coincidence of origins at a time when demand still fails to compensate for the growth of supply in the way needed to raise prices.
“In terms of total volume, 2026 also shows higher levels than 2025 in most weeks of the period, with peaks exceeding 2,000 containers in weeks 13 and 16. This greater availability is consistent with lower prices and the progressive incorporation of new origins into the market: California has already appeared as a regular and growing component since week 14, and Peru should begin to add volume more visibly in the coming weeks, following the usual pattern of the season.”
Peru has not yet entered the market strongly, but the market anticipates more pressure.
The big question now is what will happen when Peru more aggressively increases its shipments to the United States.
Last year, the influx of Peruvian avocados coincided with a relatively similar presence from California, resulting in a different balance among market players. This time, Mexico continues to contribute the most volume, and prices are weak ahead of the strong entry of South American avocados.
In practice, the market could face simultaneous coexistence between Mexico, California, and Peru in the coming weeks, in a context where returns have already been hit hard for months.
Oversupply threatens a price recovery in the short term
“If that scenario is confirmed, the North American market will face a confluence of several active origins simultaneously in a context of already depressed prices, making a relevant recovery unlikely in the short term unless Mexican supply begins to give way more clearly.”
After Cinco de Mayo: it appears there will be no problems with fruit availability, but the challenge lies in the market's ability to maintain attractive prices amidst an increasingly abundant supply. If you'd like to learn more about the dynamics of the North American avocado market, we invite you to read the latest edition of AvoMagazine (link below).
