Key indicators in the global avocado market

May presents a relatively calm outlook for the global avocado industry . Major international markets remained well-supplied, prices showed some stability, and there were no significant disruptions to the overall supply.

However, behind this apparent calm, key signs are beginning to appear that could shape market behavior and price fluctuations during the second half of 2026.

In the North American market, the shift among suppliers is already underway. Although Mexico continues to position itself as the leading exporter, its initial share this year has decreased from levels exceeding 90% to around 65%-70%.

This decline opens the door for other players to gain ground. California is rapidly advancing with the development of its local crop, while Peru and Colombia are registering an increasing presence (to a lesser extent for the Colombian origin due to a smaller harvest of Flor Traviesa).

The real question isn't what's happening today, but what will happen starting in July . The traditional Michoacán harvest is entering its final phase, giving way to the period of the so-called "crazy flower," which will mark the beginning of the new Mexican season.

All indications are that Mexico will have enough fruit to keep the market supplied. However, this situation, coupled with the strong influx of Peruvian fruit, could put downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Europe is experiencing a similar trade dynamic. Peru already accounts for over 65% of European imports and continues to solidify its position as the dominant player this season. While African products maintain a significant presence and Brazil stands out for its performance, Spain has practically disappeared from the trade landscape this season.

However, the real focus of attention in Europe is not on current demand or prices, but on the actual size of the Peruvian harvest .

Although export volumes remain high, there are increasing signs within the industry that total production may not surpass last year's levels, and could even show a slight decrease. Furthermore, estimates are beginning to emerge pointing to an earlier end to the Peruvian season , possibly three to four weeks earlier than in 2025.

If this scenario of lower stock is confirmed, the global avocado market could experience upward price adjustments during the last quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, China continues to rely almost exclusively on Peru. Supply remains abundant, and prices are under pressure. The Asian market continues to be heavily influenced by logistical factors and the frequency of shipping services, maintaining its usual volatility.

In South America, Chile maintains a surprisingly stable domestic market. The limited availability of domestic fruit has been offset by a significant presence of Peruvian avocados, which now supply a large part of local consumption with consistent weekly volumes (150-160 trucks per week) and a quality highly valued by buyers.

Canada , Japan, and Korea show similar scenarios: stable markets, without major upheavals, and with a growing dependence on Peruvian supply in the Asian case, while Canada has always been very well supplied by Mexico and now by a growing Peru.

At the level of exporting origins, there are also elements that deserve attention. Colombia continues to be affected by the development of the Flor Traviesa harvest, maintaining lower volumes than those observed in normal seasons. Brazil , for its part, registered a record harvest during March, April, and May, but is already beginning to show signs of a slowdown and a progressive reorientation of its shipments toward closer markets such as Argentina , Uruguay , and Chile .

At this time of year, expectations and projections will be as important for the global avocado market as the actual volumes entering the ports.

The final evolution of the Peruvian harvest, Mexico's capacity to sustain the supply of its new season, the speed of recovery in Colombia, and the latent impact that the El Niño phenomenon may generate on the main producing areas of the world will be the determining factors to understand the second half of the year.

Because if May made one thing clear, it's that the discussion no longer revolves around the immediate availability of fruit. The real question for the industry is how long this abundance can be sustained.