March left more than just figures in the global avocado market: it left signs. Signs of concentration, of transition, and above all, of a gradual shift in the balance that has historically shaped the dynamics between origins and destinations.

In the United States, the picture is clear. Mexico not only dominates, but does so with an intensity unusual for this time of year. Volumes approaching 2,000 truckloads per week are not just a statistic; they signal a larger harvest than last year. This is further enhanced by the fruit's high dry matter content, which increases its appeal and solidifies its position against other origins.

However, this market is not static. April introduces variables that begin to change this scenario: the start of the California harvest, the gradual entry of Peruvian exports, and a Colombia that is shifting its harvest from Principal to Traviesa. It's not just about more supply, but about how that supply overlaps over time. The key to what's coming lies in this convergence of schedules.

Interestingly, despite this high volume, prices in the United States have remained stable. This reflects a market that, for now, is absorbing the supply well. But it also raises a question: what will happen when Mexico slows its pace and Peru begins to gain prominence? Recent history suggests that Peru not only contributes volume but also acts as a price regulator, especially for supermarket chains that import.

Europe, for its part, is undergoing its own transition process. March was a stable month with a slight downward trend in prices, driven by the gradual increase in shipments. But the relevant factor is not the specific figure, but the market configuration: Colombia, Morocco, and Spain are decreasing their production and withdrawing from the market, while Peru, South Africa, and Brazil are beginning their respective harvests, although Peru is already shipping a considerable volume.

This shift is significant. Europe is once again becoming the primary destination for new export volumes, especially for Peru. Prices, still higher than in the United States, act as a natural magnet. And this has consequences: the rest of the markets are now contingent on Peru's ability—and willingness—to diversify its exports.

In Asia, the change is even more evident. China has already completed its transition: from Chile to Peru in a matter of weeks. The impact was immediate: a drop in prices due to the increased volume, followed by stabilization as shipments become more regular.

Here's a key indicator. It's not just volume that defines the Chinese market, but the speed of change. An abrupt transition creates distortions; an orderly transition, stability. Peru appears to be entering a more predictable phase, with weekly flows beginning to stabilize.

Other markets are following this transition pattern. Japan will see the departure of Jalisco and the strengthening of Michoacán, along with the growth of Peru. Korea will become almost exclusively dependent on Peruvian imports. Canada, meanwhile, remains largely Mexican, although it will see an opening for increased Peruvian participation in April.

In South America, the landscape is equally dynamic. Chile is losing ground both in its own market and in Argentina, where Brazil is beginning to establish a stronger presence, particularly in the Argentine market. Peru, once again, emerges as a new player, reshaping the balance of power.

Looking at the big picture, April isn't just another month on the calendar. It's a turning point. A month where harvests converge, where supply curves intersect, and where markets begin to redefine their dependencies.

But perhaps the most important thing to understand is that we are no longer talking about a market dominated by a single origin or a single logic. Today, avocados operate within a highly interconnected global system, where every shipping decision, every volume change, and every price variation has cascading effects.

In that sense, April doesn't just anticipate what's to come this season. It begins to build it.