Europe and Asia redefine the avocado map in April

April provided a clear lesson for the international avocado market: volumes continue to move strongly, but not all destinations are reacting in the same way, nor do all origins have the same room for maneuver.

In the United States, the month was marked by continued high shipment levels, with weeks approaching 2,000 shipments and a supply still dominated by Mexico, which maintains between 80% and 85% of the volume. However, California is beginning to gain ground, approaching 15%, while Peru and Colombia continue to have a low presence in that market.

Europe, on the other hand, is beginning to show more clearly the advance of Peru, which in the last weeks of April is already approaching 50% of the volume handled on the continent. South Africa is also gaining ground, with more than 20%, while Brazil has had a stronger start to the season than in previous years, contributing nearly 10% of the total volume. This trend confirms that the European market will be one of the most important areas to watch during May.

China remains largely unchanged, with irregular arrivals and departures influenced by logistical issues and shipments from Peru. Currently, Peru accounts for virtually 100% of the supply to that market, although weekly volumes continue to fluctuate.

In Canada, the situation is more stable, with Michoacán accounting for nearly 90% of the volume and Jalisco's production declining due to the end of its harvest. Japan, meanwhile, is beginning to diversify its supply with the entry of Peru, which is expected to increase its share in the coming months. Korea remains primarily supplied by Peru, with weekly averages of 30 to 40 shipments.

Looking ahead to May, the United States should see a gradual decrease in volume from Michoacán, although it will remain high compared to previous years. This decrease will be offset by increased participation from California and eventually some from Peru, although a Peruvian presence is not projected to be as significant as in previous seasons. In terms of prices, the US market has remained fairly stable, with a possible upward trend depending on the volume Mexico is willing to continue shipping and at what price levels.

Europe should stabilize at around 1,100 or 1,200 weekly shipments, with the possibility of approaching 1,300 depending on the pace of Peru. However, the latest figures received from Peru suggest that the volume could be similar to last year or even lower. This could have a direct impact on the behavior of the European market during the season.

Chile is also emerging as a market to watch. Peru is currently the only foreign source supplying the country, complementing domestic fruit. Peruvian volumes already exceed 100 truckloads or shipments per week, with relatively stable prices but a slight downward trend. Chilean fruit, meanwhile, remains 30% to 35% more expensive than Peruvian fruit, due to its higher dry matter content and greater appreciation in certain segments of the local market.

Argentina continues to show growth. After a 2025 with volumes significantly higher than 2024, this year could see another increase of between 20% and 30%. In March, it was primarily supplied by Chile, followed by Brazil and Peru, while in April Brazil began to gain a stronger foothold. It will be important to observe how this market reorganizes itself when Chilean fruit shipments cease and Brazil and Peru take center stage.

From a production standpoint, Michoacán is already approaching 85% to 88% of its projected harvest, while Chile is concluding its export season, which in recent months has focused on nearby destinations like Argentina. Peru is nearing 1,000 weekly shipments, although its projections have been adjusted. California is entering its peak harvest season and is expected to remain so for the next three months. Jalisco, meanwhile, is finishing its harvest and preparing for the next stage starting in June or July.

Colombia maintains relatively stable volumes, with approximately 50 to 60 weekly shipments to Europe and about 5 or 6 weekly shipments to the United States. Brazil, meanwhile, is already showing a high-volume season, with April exceeding 150 weekly shipments and weeks approaching 180, surpassing the records of 2024 and 2025.

Thus, April not only shows active markets, but also a redistribution of key players. Mexico continues to set the pace in North America, Peru is becoming increasingly influential in Europe, Asia, and Chile, California is beginning to take its natural seasonal place, and Brazil is emerging with a harvest that is already changing its relative importance in different destinations. The question for May will not only be how much volume there will be, but where it will go and how quickly the markets can adapt to this new equilibrium.