How does size influence the profitability of Hass avocados?

Hass avocado producers destined for the U.S. market enjoy a privileged position within the fresh fruit industry. In most seasons, virtually the entire production is sold. Only in a few exceptional years do smaller fruits remain on the trees because market prices are insufficient to cover harvesting costs. However, this situation has become increasingly rare.

Over the past five years, bag sales programs for North American customers have increased demand for smaller sizes and second-grade fruit. Unlike other fruit crops, the processed market has, in many cases, even covered production costs.

As in any business, efficiency is key. Margins are tight, and economic sustainability depends on maximizing profitability. Simply put, profit is the income per hectare minus production costs. Since the U.S. market pays differentiated prices based on size, an inevitable question arises for producers: What is the most profitable fruit size to produce?

There's a widespread perception that "size matters" and that "bigger is better." This idea is partly true, since the number of fruits is determined during flowering, and the individual growth of each fruit directly translates into more kilos per hectare. Generally speaking, the more kilos a producer sells, the higher their income will be.

However, the commercial value of the fruit does not depend solely on its size. The variety also plays a determining role.

Historically, varieties such as Zutano, Bacon and Pinkerton They produced larger fruit and higher yields per hectare than Hass. However, these varieties were commercially displaced because, despite producing fewer kilos and smaller fruit, Hass generated higher income per hectare , reflecting a better valuation in the market.

The variety was introduced at the beginning of the 2000s Lamb Hass , and for the last ten years the cultivation of GEM It has expanded considerably. Both produce large fruits with characteristics similar to Hass, such as turning black during ripening and a relatively rough skin.

Although these varieties are often sold at a discount compared to Hass, the economic analysis is more complex. Settlements to producers simultaneously consider Variety, size, and quality . Thus, a container of Lamb Hass or GEM can reach a higher total value than one of Hass if it concentrates most of its fruit in sizes 36 or 40, while Hass may concentrate in sizes 60 or 70. In those cases, the premium obtained for the larger size can more than compensate for the discount applied for variety.

Market behavior also responds to the classic law of supply and demand. Scarce products tend to fetch higher prices. During the first months of the season, larger sizes are less abundant, as the fruit has spent less time on the tree and has had less opportunity to grow. Therefore, the premium for large fruit in California is usually higher in January than in September. Similarly, in Mexico, large sizes typically fetch higher prices in August than in May.

Only occasionally—approximately once every five years—does it happen that, towards the end of the season, smaller sizes, such as size 70, begin to fetch higher prices than larger sizes due to a shortage of fruit. However, these periods are usually brief.

Another relevant aspect is the distribution of sizes within the available supply. The US market is structured to absorb a maximum of 15% of fruit size 40 or larger. In the early years of Peruvian Hass exports, approximately 45% of shipments consisted of these larger sizes.

Many exporters attributed the discounts they received to a perceived preference for the product's origin. However, during those same periods, size 60 avocados—which did meet market demand—received much smaller discounts compared to those from other origins. The explanation was simple: the sizes that were overrepresented in the supply received larger discounts, while those with a balanced supply maintained better prices.

Ultimately, the producer's economic return depends on multiple factors. Size, variety, and seasonality are three of the most important. The experience of Zutano and Bacon producers demonstrates that obtaining more kilos per hectare does not guarantee higher income. Similarly, many Peruvian exporters prefer their production to be concentrated on size 48 rather than size 36 for much of the year.

In seasons like the In 2025 , when the supply of large fruit was abundant, the expected premiums for varieties like GEM or Lamb Hass simply did not materialize.

The conclusion is clear: The success of the producer does not depend solely on producing larger fruit, but on doing so efficiently and in line with what the market is actually willing to pay for.