Record advance and adjustments in avocado prices

If you don't like the weather, just wait.

Mexico concluded its 2025-2026 avocado cycle in June, far surpassing the export records set in 2023. In March, end-of-season shipments averaged 1,700 weekly shipments for several weeks, helping to offset shortages of other staples such as tomatoes, corn, and limes. Attractively priced avocados gained additional shelf space at a time when the industry needed to move large volumes of fruit.

A few weeks later, the picture changed dramatically. Shipments for Cinco de Mayo were solid, although many in the industry believe that enthusiasm for the holiday has waned since its peak in the 2000s. Following the holiday, Mexico continues to export 20% to 30% more fruit per week than last year, but far from the record highs of March. This drop triggered a surge in demand in the fields: between May 10 and 20, producer prices doubled.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

California growers' perceptions of 2025 depend on when they harvested. Those who harvested before June had a great year, with record returns. In contrast, those who harvested after September faced low prices, to the point of canceling tree orders at nurseries.

2026 could be the exact opposite. Many growers who harvested before Cinco de Mayo suffered losses, with harvesting costs absorbing nearly half of their revenue. If current price increases hold, this summer could be different. California has harvested about a third of its crop, despite a historically late start due to low winter and spring prices. If the price increases persist, the harvest pace could accelerate.

South America, absent.

Since September 2025, South America has been virtually excluded from the market. With Mexican farmgate prices hovering around $20 and very high transportation costs, Chile, Colombia, and Peru have been unable to replicate last year's volumes. In April 2025, nearly 7 million pounds arrived in a single week; last week, fewer than seven containers arrived. This will change in the coming weeks: US prices are now higher than in Europe and, coupled with Mexican market volatility, will revive interest in avocados and the "traviesa" fruit. Producers from all countries continue to negotiate with the federal government for the return of last year's tariffs, which they consider illegal.

Looking ahead

Jalisco should begin exporting its new harvest fruit in June. This origin plays a key role in maintaining Mexico's relevance during the end-of-season Hass transition. In some summers, Jalisco contributes up to 40% of Mexican shipments to the U.S., bridging the gap that existed when Michoacán was the sole source.

Demand growth hinges on providing consumers with high-quality fruit. Last year's record shipments undoubtedly won over new avocado enthusiasts across North America. Heading into summer, there will be a wide selection: GEMS, Hass, and Lambs from California; old and new harvests from Mexico; the return of avocados from Peru and Colombia; plus green-skinned varieties from Florida and the Dominican Republic. Events like the World Cup, Father's Day, and the Fourth of July will offer numerous opportunities for avocados from all these origins to win over American consumers.