After nine months of apparent dormancy, the US avocado market woke up in March. The 2024/25 season saw record prices until April. Threats of tariffs on all imported avocados disrupted supply, leading to nine months of steady price erosion. It was the longest and most consistent downward period in recent memory, without a single upward cycle until December.

In January 2026, a record volume was set when retailers once again promoted avocado consumption during the college football playoffs and the Super Bowl. This record was surpassed again in March. Most notably, despite the record volume, prices rose only slightly and inventories grew slowly, even without any specific holidays or events to drive demand. With 1,700 truckloads per week, the market appeared to have found a “new normal.” The March record exceeded the five-year average by 32% and the highest historical March volume by 22%.

During the fall, winter, and early spring, Mexico accounted for nearly 95% of avocados sold in the U.S. Low prices delayed the California harvest by four to six weeks. Transitions can be complex, with some regional chains slow to shift their country of origin. By late spring, sourcing options will continue to expand. In June, shoppers will be able to choose from old and new crop avocados from Mexico; California (GEM, Hass, or Lamb); Colombia; Peru; the Dominican Republic; or Florida. Early orchards in Jalisco are showing dry matter levels of 19–20%, helping to minimize any seasonal gaps in the summer. Growing demand is crucial to maintaining a steady flow of fruit, and March shows that interest in avocados remains high. Robust promotions from all Hass Avocado Board associations will be key to keeping the product in shopping carts and on plates this summer.

The growth in handbag sales has driven part of this phenomenon, and it's not limited to the U.S.: retailers in Canada and Mexico are also selling more handbags than in the past.

In addition to the delayed California harvest, South American imports have been displaced in recent months. Last year, Colombia shipped between 3 and 4 million pounds per week in February and March, with Chile contributing an additional 1 million. In April, shipments from Peru exceeded 3 million pounds per week. With 70 million pounds per week coming from Mexico and California in April 2026, we are in uncharted territory. Peru projects the need to increase its volume to the US compared to last year, although doing so could be challenging.

The prolonged price decline in 2025 has generated concern among many producers. This is understandable after nine months of falling prices, although it's easy to forget that up until April 2025, there had been nine months of record prices.

The changes in the demand curve for January and March 2026 illustrate how dynamic markets can be. A consistent supply of high-quality product is key to building demand. Summer promotional opportunities should be plentiful: the World Cup matches in North America for six weeks, the Olympic Games, and the Fourth of July will offer countless celebrations. High-quality avocados in salads, burgers, or guacamole will ensure satisfied guests throughout the summer.