Week 16 and Colombia is getting creative with export volumes for the off-season. As we've discussed in previous columns, this isn't a particularly large off-season, but it's not a short one either; it's more of a measured season, where every kilo counts and every decision carries more weight than usual.

Today, competition isn't just in exports. The domestic market, processors, and exporters' programs are all playing out in parallel, putting pressure on availability. Fruit no longer has a single, clear destination, and this forces more nuanced decisions in the field and in sales.

In terms of production, the lowlands are currently sustaining the available volume, and all indications are that this will continue through April, May, and part of June. However, the highlands present a different reality: low availability during this period, which is beginning to paint an interesting—and challenging—scenario for June, July, and August, when supply could be even more limited and competition for fruit intensifies.

In exports, we continue to see a moderate pace to Europe, with around 50 containers per week, while the US market receives only a few units. There are no surprises on this front: the story remains the same, a sustained reduction in volumes.

In the field, purchase prices average around $4,200 pesos. The size distribution follows a typical cross-sectional structure: 15% large, 45% medium, and 35% small. In terms of price, this translates to approximately $5,300 for large sizes, $4,200 for medium sizes, and around $2,000 for small sizes.

However, a sign is beginning to emerge that cannot be ignored: a drop in purchase offers. This suggests that, although supply is limited, demand is not pushing as hard, or at least it is becoming more selective.

And as every year, the backdrop is already being felt: all that's left is to hold on. To maintain discipline in purchasing, in shipments, and in expectations, while the already familiar avocado wave from Peru passes, which sooner or later will set the pace for the international market.

The message is clear: this isn't a "short" but unusually less voluminous cruise like every year. In this context, more than volume, what's starting to make the difference is keeping a cool head to navigate what's to come.

Jorge Molina Duque
Operations Manager, Quality Studio CO
jorge.molina@qualitystudio.cl
Colombia