Week 12 and the closing of the main Colombian harvest 2025–2026 is already beginning to be felt, without much noise but clearly.

The market is speaking, and this time it's doing so with signals that invite us to read calmly, but without losing our rhythm.

Over the past four weeks, we have seen a gradual reduction of nearly 10% per week in export volumes to Europe. Europe remains practically the only significant destination for Colombian fruit: approximately 95% of our exports are going there, while the North American market has yet to show clear signs of reopening.

On the price front, adjustments are already beginning to emerge. Europe has been experiencing high levels, but in the last two weeks, a downward trend has emerged which, while not yet alarming, does anticipate potentially sharper corrections in the short term. The reason is clear: Peru is now starting to take center stage with volumes exceeding 400 containers per week, putting pressure on the market and reshaping the supply dynamics.

In the field, prices continue to hold steady within a framework that reflects this transition. Exportable fruit of large sizes is trading around 6,800 pesos per kilo, medium sizes around 4,500, and small sizes or "babies" around 3,000 pesos. Size distribution remains relatively stable: 20% large, 45% medium, and 35% small.

The weather continues to play a major role. The rains have intensified, hindering post-harvest operations and raising concerns about their potential impact on flowering for the next main crop. In the fields, producers—always resilient—report a less voluminous mid-season harvest than usual, but they expect the main 2026–2027 crop to yield significant volumes.

Figures are already circulating for 2026 that point to exports between 150,000 and 180,000 tons, a level that, if confirmed, would be lower than that recorded in 2025. This opens up an interesting scenario: less volume doesn't necessarily mean less pressure. On the contrary, it could intensify competition among exporters and processors to ensure quality fruit.

And that's where a phenomenon worth examining closely emerges: the growing role of intermediaries. Amid this competition, some are capturing a significant share of the business, which raises risks in terms of quality and, above all, traceability. This is no small matter in an increasingly demanding market.

Adding to this is another piece of data that speaks to the current state of the sector: there are now more than 27 avocado processing plants in Colombia. This figure reflects how the industry is diversifying and how a significant portion of the production is finding new markets beyond fresh consumption.

The next two weeks will be crucial. We'll need to closely monitor Peruvian arrivals in Europe, understand how importers' returns and settlements are behaving, and, above all, interpret what the market is telling us about the balance we need to build.

Because in the end, beyond the numbers, the question remains the same: how do we ensure that all this movement contributes to the sustainability of the Colombian avocado sector? That, as always, is the real challenge.

Jorge Molina Duque
Operations Manager, Quality Studio CO
jorge.molina@qualitystudio.cl
Colombia