California's avocado harvest continues to gain momentum, with the week ending April 27 producing approximately 14 million pounds, consistent with strong seasonal expectations. This brings total inventories to a robust 20 million pounds, positioning the market well for the critical Cinco de Mayo promotional period.

Inventory levels and Cinco de Mayo promotions

Inventories reaching 20 million pounds arrive at an ideal time, as retailers and foodservice operators prepare for heavy avocado purchases in the lead-up to Cinco de Mayo. Demand for avocados traditionally increases during this period, second only to the Super Bowl in terms of volume. However, the key to post-Cinco sales will be managing inventories effectively and ensuring committed promotional programs at the retail level.

Size trends

Regarding fruit sizes, the 60s and 70s have become the preferred sizes among retailers and consumers, aligning with current consumption trends and portion control preferences. An important market watch will be to see how many 48s, traditionally a key size, remain after the Cinco. There could be additional pressure to quickly move larger fruit if demand for the Cinco shifts heavily toward smaller sizes.

Producer prices and market dynamics

Producer prices have retreated this week, largely due to the extended harvest window and inventory buildup not only in California but throughout the U.S. avocado supply chain. The longer harvest period and strong volume have given buyers more leverage, putting downward pressure on field prices even as retail demand increases.

Marketing and promotional efforts

The California Avocado Commission (CAC) and major suppliers have launched robust advertising and in-store promotional efforts to support sales. Targeted marketing campaigns are delivering millions of consumer impressions, aiming to maintain momentum beyond Cinco de Mayo through summer barbecue season.

Gary Clevenger Freska Produce International, LLC gary@freskaproduce.com