TRQ: California's bet vs. Mexican avocado oversupply

The 2026 avocado season in California is entering its final stretch, as the U.S. market increasingly shifts toward imported supplies. California handlers shipped approximately 9.15 million pounds during the week, including 8.12 million pounds of Hass avocados . Year-to-date shipments total nearly 280.1 million pounds , with an industrial adjustment approaching 285.7 million pounds .

Imports dominate the landscape

This week's figures clearly reflect the transition: Mexico reported 50.7 million pounds , Peru added 8.1 million , and total imported Hass arrivals exceeded 59 million pounds . California harvested approximately 9.8 million pounds . Although some fruit remains to be marketed, California's share of the total U.S. supply will continue to decline through the rest of August and into September.

Why are producers talking about a TRQ?

The California Avocado Commission supports the implementation of a seasonal tariff quota (TRQ) on Mexican avocado imports during the March-to-September marketing season. The proposal does not seek to halt the entry of Mexican avocados, which are essential for maintaining the category's status year-round, but rather to regulate the volume entering the market during the period when California growers must sell their harvest. Under this proposal, Mexican avocados would continue to enter the United States, but volumes exceeding the established seasonal threshold would face a higher tariff. The goal is to provide some protection against extreme oversupply and downward pressure on prices during the California harvest window.

Protecting a viable domestic industry

This week's volume illustrates the challenge: Mexican arrivals were more than five times California's harvest. Imports themselves aren't the problem, as they're necessary to meet U.S. demand. The concern is whether the rapid increase in supply during the California season leaves enough room in the market for local producers to remain economically viable.

California farmers face high costs for water, labor, land, and regulatory compliance. When supply far exceeds demand, the resulting price pressure quickly impacts returns. Over time, consistently insufficient income can lead to the removal of acreage from production, a process that is neither quick nor inexpensive to reverse.

Looking ahead

The California season will continue its decline as Mexico assumes an increasingly dominant role in U.S. supply and Peru's program begins to taper. The big question extends beyond the final weeks of 2026: Can sustained growth in imported supply coexist with a healthy domestic industry? A well-structured seasonal TRQ is one of the alternatives California growers are urging policymakers to consider.

The goal is not to pit California against Mexico, but to secure market space for Californian producers, while preserving the strong year-round avocado category that American consumers expect.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com