California's Hass avocado season is entering its final phase, with solid weekly harvests, a well-balanced regional supply, and shifting price dynamics due to international competition. As of last week, growers had harvested just under 6 million pounds, bringing the season to 78% completion.

Harvest progress and season

During the week ending August 1, California growers delivered just under 6 million pounds of fruit. With 78% of the harvest complete, approximately 22% of the remaining volume is still in the fields, suggesting a slow and controlled shutdown that will extend into late summer.

Regional breakdown of the offer

Southern California (36%): Production continues to decline after peaking, driven by warmer microclimates that favored early yields. Northern California (64%): Currently at its best, cooler growing areas are providing the majority of weekly volume, sustaining overall flow as production declines in the South.

Inventory Composition

Total Stock Available: Approximately 15 million pounds remain in cold storage. Caliber Profile:

75% corresponds to medium calibers (between 40 and 60 units per box), which are well suited to the needs of both retail and gastronomy.

The remainder includes small (32–36) and large (70–96) calibers, intended for specific niches and special formats. Lamb Hass' share: Around £2.5 million (≈17% of inventory), offering a creamier alternative that continues to attract targeted demand.

Price Trends

In the last two weeks, prices for producers have experienced the largest percentage drop of the entire season.

International Imports: The increase in shipments from Mexico, along with arrivals from Peru and Colombia, has saturated the supply chain, generating the greatest downward pressure on prices.

National Factors: High yields in California and good packing levels in sizes 40–60, coupled with changes in orders from the food service channel, have intensified the weakening of the market.

Market Outlook

Availability of Medium Sizes: The strong concentration in sizes 40–60 will ensure a steady flow to retail and foodservice.

Lamb Hass Niche: Although in smaller volume, the Lamb Hass offering remains a premium product capable of sustaining differentiated prices.

Logistical Balance: As production decreases in the south and intensifies in the north, a mixture of small and medium-sized fruits predominates.

Pricing Management: Continued upward pressure on prices is expected due to imports; strategic promotions and adjustments to packaging formats will be necessary to protect margins. Prices should improve toward mid- to late August, when the volume from Peru decreases.

Final Summary

With nearly 6 million pounds harvested last week, bringing the season to 78% completion, California's avocado supply remains balanced across regions (36% South, 64% North) and in inventory (75% medium sizes 40–60, 17% Lamb Hass). However, international competition has led to the largest price drop of the season, highlighting the need to adjust promotional strategies toward medium sizes, emphasize the premium value of Lamb Hass, and closely monitor import volumes to maintain market stability.

Gary Clevenger Freska Produce International, LLC gary@freskaproduce.com