Avocado market on edge: uncertainty over tariffs and adjustments in the value chain
Mexico
Week 13 was a busy one for the avocado industry in Mexico. With a harvest of 32,287 tons and exports of 28,276 tons, the utilization rate reached 88%. However, the implementation of the tariff on Mexican avocados, scheduled for week 14, has generated significant uncertainty in the market.
In an attempt to meet the needs of week 14, significant quantities of tons were shipped. However, this week's harvest has decreased considerably, with estimates of around 20,000 tons.
The supply of hectares available for cutting has also decreased by 5% compared to last week, which is a normal trend at this time of the season.
Meanwhile, California has begun harvesting significant volumes of avocados, around 5,000 tons, which is taking a share of the market.
Demand and price conditions appear to be stable in the coming weeks. However, it's important to note that Mexico will have holidays during week 16, which could lead to a decrease in inventories. Additionally, Cinco de Mayo is approaching, a date when Mexican avocados are typically promoted.
The implementation of tariffs on Mexican avocados continues to generate uncertainty within the industry. California producers are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of this new reality. Only time will tell how the Mexican avocado value chain will adjust to this change.
Have a great week everyone.
Antonio Villaseñor Zurita
Mexico
