Harvest vs. Consumption: The challenge of balancing the avocado market in the USA
During week 14 of the calendar year, 34,552 tons were harvested and 25,317 tons were exported to the USA, which means that about 9,000 tons remained in cold storage. Around a third will go to other markets and the rest will be sent to the United States between today and tomorrow.
We have a market that was already showing signs of weakness by the end of last week, with inventory growing and sales declining. The HAB, through AVIS, reports 29,050 tons of inventory today, levels that have caused a drop in selling prices and consequently in buying prices. Therefore, we believe that this week, the export harvest volume will be lower in an attempt to rebalance the market.
Today's harvest is estimated at 4,600 tons, 20% lower than last week's average. It should be noted that this week there was no change in the list of orchards available for harvest compared to last week, so the supply remains valid, but market conditions will force the industry to reduce the harvest volume.
California has started its season and already has 20% of the market, which also impacts Mexico's exports.
Jalisco is practically running out of available volume and Michoacán will be the only supplier from Mexico.
Let's hope for an increase in consumption in the coming days and achieve a stable market that can consume the fruit supply from Mexico and California.
Have a great week everyone!
Antonio Villaseñor Zurita
antoniovz@aztecavo.com.mx